Guide to Trucking

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ITS sees a capacity collapse brought about by a regulatory crackdown and rising costs pushing truckload drivers out of the market.

“ It’ s likely that 20 % to 30 % of [ truck ] capacity could get wiped out when all is said and done,” Allen said in an interview.

That capacity destruction is what pushed the BLS long-distance truckload producer price index( PPI) up 22.9 % year over year and 6.5 % sequentially in May.

At 209.6, the truckload PPI is still nearly 10 % below its 2022 peak of 232.5, but it’ s still the highest reading since December 2022. The measure of all-inclusive, spot and contract selling prices has risen 5.2 % on average every month this year, BLS data shows.

“ It’ s likely that 20 % to 30 % of capacity could get wiped out when all is said and done.”

The long-distance less-than-truckload( LTL) PPI flattened in May, climbing only 0.4 % from April to 312.1. That’ s still a 20.9 % gain from May 2025, according to BLS data.

Higher fuel costs and surcharges account for some of the gains in April and May, but increases in rates form the base. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which excludes fuel surcharges, was up 6.9 % year over year in May and 0.4 % higher than April.

In its report, Cass said that volumes are starting to recover, but its view is that“ mainly supply constraints

US truckload pricing hits 41-month high in May

US long-haul truckload producer price index( PPI)

Truckload PPI

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200 210

200

190

180 171 170

L2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Apr, 2025

© 2026 S & P Global

[ are ] supporting higher rates” for equipment capacity and drivers.

With truck capacity contracting, even weak demand can prop up higher rates and is likely to do so throughout 2026 and into 2027, ITS’ s Allen said.

“ There are way too many people purchasing transportation who look at this as temporary,” Allen said.“ The [ pricing ] trend should be up significantly through the fourth quarter, and I don’ t think anyone’ s prepared for it.”

Senior Editor Bill Mongelluzzo contributed to this report.

email: bill. cassidy @ spglobal. com

L

LTL carriers look to industrial gains for freight in 2026

The largest US LTL networks are operated by FedEx Freight, XPO, Old Dominion Freight Line and Estes Express. Shutterstock. com

By William B. Cassidy

After three years of depressed shipping demand, tepid revenue and tighter carrier profit margins, the US lessthan-truckload( LTL) market is heating up, setting the stage for a healthier-than-expected 2026 for LTL trucking companies and higher costs for shippers.

Freight demand may not be surging, but carrier executives say it is rising, and that’ s strengthening their hand as they negotiate pricing and service contracts. New customers, unyielding delivery deadlines and surging truckload rates all fuel LTL growth.

30 Journal of Commerce | July 6, 2026 www. joc. com