Cover Story

Ocean carriers cash in as high demand piles on stretched supply chains

By Greg Knowler

Ocean carriers are seizing upon an early peak season on major and secondary trades to push container spot rates on their most bullish trajectory in two years as a demand surge overwhelms a shipping system stretched by geopolitical disruption, higher fuel prices and port congestion.

Fearing the increased cost of products, importers on two of the main trade lanes out of Asia— the trans-Pacific and Asia – Europe— have been frontloading shipments, filling all available vessel space in an early start to the peak seasons on both trade lanes. Containerized US imports from Asia jumped 19.5 % year over year in May, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global, while westbound Asia – Europe volumes rose 12.3 % in April, according to the latest available data from Container Trades Statistics( CTS).

Vessel capacity is so tight amid the surge in frontloading of fall and end-of-year holiday merchandise that forwarders are warning Asia – Europe customers to get bookings in at least five weeks ahead of sailing and trans-Pacific shippers to book three weeks in advance.

“ What we are seeing is a perfect storm in the sense that demand is holding up... and that has brought the peak season sooner than expected,” said Parash Jain, global head of transport and logistics research at HSBC, told the Journal of Commerce.“ At the same time, there is congestion building in the Chinese ports, chaos in German ports, [ and ] the Panama Canal is experiencing congestion as tanker capacity carries oil through the [ canal ].”

Container lines are cashing in on the stronger-thanexpected supply-demand fundamentals. They’ ve successfully imposed a series of rate hikes and peak season surcharges on both corridors that will pile on top of emergency fuel surcharges and a $ 300 to $ 400 per TEU increase in contractual bunker adjustment factors linked to the war in the Middle East.

“ The success of surcharges still depends on demand and supply, and the surcharges are sticking because demand is higher than supply,” Jain said.“ Everything is sticking. Peak season surcharge, emergency surcharge, war premium, cargo imbalance, you name it.”

The carriers’ increased pricing power is clearly visible in the various container rate indexes. The Global Container Index from Platts, also part of S & P Global, skyrocketed to $ 5,764 per FEU in the week of June 19, the highest

Strong demand and capacity disruptions have pushed global container rates to pandemic-era levels. VladSV / Shutterstock. com

www. joc. com reading since April 2022, from $ 2,667 per FEU in the last week of April. Maritime analyst Drewry’ s World Container Index rose to $ 3,969 per FEU from $ 2,216 per FEU in the same period.

Destine Ozuygur, senior analyst at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said that although not all container lines reported losses in the first quarter, they all cited higher operating costs resulting from the Middle East war.

“ To protect their margins and recuperate some of those losses, the rates will stick and likely climb higher yet,” Ozuygur said.“ We should fully expect the carriers to make the most of this.”

An‘ outdated idea’?

Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, noted that ongoing vessel rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope is still reducing available capacity, adding that the large order book of new container ships is mostly slated for delivery from 2027 onwards. In this environment, even short-term demand increases or sudden changes in bunker fuel surcharges can translate into rate spikes.

“ The surcharges are sticking because demand is higher than supply.”

“ The situation is an indirect effect of the Hormuz crisis; it is not the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz itself which is causing this tightness,” Jensen wrote in a June 5 LinkedIn post.“ However, the Hormuz crisis is the reason why the Red Sea crisis is not resolved. It is the detour around Africa due to the Red Sea crisis which continues to absorb a large amount of vessel capacity. Keep in mind that prior to the Hormuz crisis, we were beginning to see a slow reversal back to the Suez routing.”

Global container rates highest since COVID-19 market

Composite global average container spot rate, in USD per FEU

USD per FEU

$ 8,000

$ 6,000 $ 10,000 $ 4,000

$ 2,000

$ 0 L 2022 2024 2026

Source: Platts Global Container Index, S & P Global

© 2026 S & P Global

July 6, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 11