Annual Review & Outlook 2025 Cover Story
Comparatively , truck capacity has been plentiful , as reflected by low spot rates and contract pricing . Shippers reported only occasional market tightness — most often in Southern California , where port volumes absorbed some excess capacity — and no real trouble finding trucks .
Capacity is tighter in the LTL sector , which saw the number of terminals , trucks and drivers shrink after Yellow , then the third-largest LTL provider , went bankrupt in 2023 . That company ’ s shutdown eliminated about 10 % of US LTL capacity . With capacity still tight heading into 2025 , LTL carriers are pushing increases in the mid- to upper double-digit percentage range in annual contracts .
“ Once we get to January ... everything is coming fast .”
“ We are at a transitionary point in the market ,” Ryan Hammett , director of market intelligence and insights at third-party logistics company C . H . Robinson Worldwide , said at the Traffic Club of Chicago Transportation & Logistics Customer Forum in November .
“ We ’ ve been stuck at the bottom of this freight cycle for more than two years now , but there are signs things are changing and we ’ re moving from a period of oversupply into a little bit more balance ,” Hammett said of US truckload capacity .
Steady on the rails
International intermodal volumes enjoyed a boost last year because of surging freight to the US West Coast , rising by double-digit percentages . Total inland point intermodal ( IPI ) volumes will end the year between 8.91 million to 9.1 million units , according to a Journal of Commerce forecast based on data from the Intermodal Association of North America ( IANA ).
Carriers increasing trans-Pacific vessel capacity through January
Asia – US West Coast container ship capacity , deployed and blanked , with forecast
TEU capacity
1.5M
1M
500k -500k
0
-500k
-1M L Jul Jan 2024 Jul Aug , 2024 Jan 2025
Actual capacity |
Expected capacity |
Blanked capacity |
Notes : as of Dec . 5 , 2024 |
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Source : eeSea
www . joc . com
© 2024 S & P Global
A potential shift of cargo back to the East and Gulf Coasts following a finalized longshore contract would put downward pressure on international intermodal growth . If that were to happen , total international intermodal traffic could be flat to slightly down in 2025 across North America . Assuming a gradual shift back to the East Coast , IPI volumes in 2025 will be between 8.9 million and 9.1 million units , according to the Journal of Commerce forecast .
Domestic intermodal volume grew in 2024 as well , although only by mid-single digit percentages year over year . Given the amount of available container capacity available , another single-digit percentage increase in 2025 could be on the horizon .
The rise in domestic intermodal volume was a tale of two markets . Demand to move freight out of Southern California was robust in the second half of 2024 , but outside the West Coast , growth was minimal or non-existent . Domestic intermodal volumes are set to expand 3 % to 4 % year over year in 2025 , according to the Journal of Commerce analysis .
Fueling a freight recovery
For the past three years , an uptick in US freight demand has often seemed only a few quarters away , but a catalyst for stronger growth has consistently failed to materialize . Ongoing cuts to the US federal funds rate , perhaps coupled with tax cuts , may provide such a catalyst .
January 6 , 2025 | Journal of Commerce 9