Air Cargo

2026 Annual Review & Outlook

E-commerce, AI demand to keep ex-Asia air freight under pressure

By Greg Knowler

The big picture: Continued growth in demand for AI components and cross-border e-commerce goods out of Asia will strain air cargo capacity during peak volume periods in 2026. The construction of massive AI data centers around the world will require huge volumes of semiconductors and other high-tech products, and the need for rapid delivery will continue to drive Asian e-commerce shipments to the air.

A look back: China’ s main e-commerce platforms— Shein, Temu and TikTok— dominated trans-Pacific air cargo in 2024, and that continued into 2025. But when the Trump administration eliminated the so-called de minimis exemption for products made in China, more than 2 million daily e-commerce shipments from China began stacking up at US airports. After briefly restoring the exemption, which allowed goods valued under $ 800 to enter the country without paying tariffs, while US Customs and Border Protection devised an appropriate inspection and duty collection system, the administration eliminated it for good on May 2. As a result, China – US air freight traffic plummeted, but those losses were largely offset by increased volumes from Southeast Asia to the US, as well as from Asia to Latin America and Europe. And even as airlines shifted freighters to those other trade routes, China’ s air cargo exports began to recover in the fourth quarter.

A look ahead: Airlines will continue to adjust capacity to account for shifts in volume, but the volatility of US trade policy and continued demand growth fueled by the AI boom will make this more difficult. Semiconductors to support strategically located AI data centers will boost air freight volumes, particularly from Taiwan, the largest global semiconductor supplier, and Vietnam, which is increasing its own semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. Those volumes will add to existing e-commerce demand, with online shopping now firmly entrenched in the global consumer system, keeping freighters full on the major trades out of Asia.

The next inflection: In the longer term, new freighters coming online and increased belly space in passenger aircraft could cause available space to outstrip air cargo volumes. Although the excess capacity will not be uniform across all trade lanes, any supply-demand imbalance and resulting pressure on profitability will influence airlines’ approach to the market. They could, for example, become more selective with fixed-rate contracts, preferring shorter and more flexible deals that prioritize yields over volume. At the same time, forwarders will be competing fiercely for market share on the major trades out of Asia, putting further downward pressure on rates.

email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com

Asia – North America air capacity hits 2025 high in November

Air freight capacity from Asia Pacific to North America, with weekly change

Tonne kilometers

120,000

100,000

80,000 100,000 60,000

40,000

Source: Rotate

60 %

40 %

20 %-60 %

-20 %

Capacity Weekly % change

0 %

Weekly % change

© 2026 S & P Global

Freighters that had shifted to other trades after the US de minimis changes have returned to the trans-Pacific. Ronen Fefer / Shutterstock. com

94 Journal of Commerce | January 5, 2026 www. joc. com