Surface Transportation 2026 Annual Review & Outlook

Persistent supply-demand imbalance to keep truckload rates in check

By William B. Cassidy

Large US truckload carriers slash fleets to record lows

The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index( TCI), a measure of actual truck counts at a group of large publicly owned truckload carriers

95 %

90 %

100 84 85 %

80 %

75 %

The big picture: The depression in demand that has gripped the US truckload sector for three years will likely continue through the first half of 2026. That could mean a sharper correction in capacity followed by higher rates late in the year or in 2027, which some believe will be the real recovery year for truckload carriers.

A look back: The recovery in trucking volumes many carriers and analysts had expected— or at least hoped for— at the start of 2025 failed to materialize as US manufacturing lost its early momentum and US tariffs distorted import demand. As a result, truckload spot rates stayed in the trough they’ ve inhabited since mid-2022. Pricing rose and fell seasonally throughout 2025, and each minor gain was hailed as a potential turning point, but widespread overcapacity and the lack of a demand catalyst kept a lid on spot and contract rate hikes. Large truckload carriers cut their fleets in an attempt to match low levels of demand and preserve profit margins, dragging capacity to historic lows. The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index( TCI), a measure of actual truck counts at large publicly owned carriers, dropped to 72.4 % in the third quarter, an all-time low in two decades of TCI data. But the“ long tail” of small truckload carriers remains long. More than 38,500 operating authorities were cancelled between December 2022 and September 2025, but there were almost 90,000 more carriers that month than in December 2019, according to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration

Source: Company reports, JOC analysis

There were 90,000 more US truckload carriers were in operation in September 2025 than in 2019. Shutterstock. com

Index

© 2026 S & P Global

( FMCSA). That underscores a shift, with more drivers moving to smaller trucking firms and those smaller firms proving more resilient than in the past.

A look ahead: The resiliency demonstrated by small carriers is a significant break from previous economic downturns and, therefore, makes projections for 2026 more difficult. Analysts and large carrier executives have been predicting small fleets would fold and exit the market in increasing numbers for three years, and while rising costs and low demand will continue to squeeze those carriers, the number of companies closing their doors has slowed to a crawl. Just 1,500 operating authorities were revoked in the first nine months of 2025, down from 13,000 in 2024 and 25,000 in 2023, according to FMCSA data. Trucking executives believe a regulatory crackdown on non-domiciled commercial driver’ s licenses( CDLs) and increased enforcement of English-language proficiency requirements will pull more drivers off the road, but whether these actions will take enough capacity out of service— and do so quickly enough— to move the needle on rates remains to be seen. Orders for new Class 8 trucks are expected to fall amid low rates, weak demand, tariffs and uncertainty over future emissions regulations, slowing the influx of additional capacity into the oversupplied truckload market.

The next inflection: Whatever capacity might exit the market in 2026, most analysts believe a strong resurgence in freight volumes is needed to enable a true rebound in truckload rates. US manufacturing output, as measured by the S & P Global US manufacturing purchasing managers’ index( PMI), expanded sequentially for the fourth straight month in November, but growth remains constrained by uncertainty over tariffs, trade policy and consumer spending. Absent a sudden and unexpected demand spike, truckload contract rate increases will likely be limited to low single-digit percentages and spot pricing will likely remain depressed well into this year, if not 2027.

email: bill. cassidy @ spglobal. com

64 Journal of Commerce | January 5, 2026 www. joc. com