Government

2026 Annual Review & Outlook

confidence

Regulatory uncertainty weighs heavy on green fuel investment

By Greg Knowler

The big picture: The October postponement of a vote on the International Maritime Organization’ s( IMO) net-zero framework will make it more difficult for ocean carriers to hit already ambitious interim targets for reducing carbon emissions. Opposition from the White House— including threats of retaliation against members voting for the framework— derailed what would have been the first industrywide emissions-cutting regulations for at least a year, possibly longer if the US continues to lobby against it over the next 12 months.

Alternative fuel vessels account for 75 % of orders from 2023 – 25

Capacity of container ships on order by fuel type, in TEUs

TEU capacity

5,996,491

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000 1,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

Source: S & P Global

0 L 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Traditional fuel

LNG, Methanol, Hydrogen

© 2026 S & P Global

A look back: Significant divisions emerged between IMO member states of the over the net-zero framework, which includes mid-term measures limiting carbon intensity in maritime fuel and an emissions pricing mechanism. But after intense debate at the UN agency’ s Marine Environmental Protection Committee( MEPC) meeting in London in April, the majority of member states voted to accept the framework. At that point, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the IMO would officially adopt the framework during the October MEPC meeting and roll the regulations out globally in 2027. But the Trump administration had other ideas, and after an extensive campaign supported by petrostates and some of the world’ s largest flag states, the IMO delayed voting on the measure until October 2026 at the earliest, putting global emissions goals for 2030 in serious doubt. In addition, the delay has injected more uncertainty into an alternative fuel market that was already struggling to attract crucial investment from both the public and private sectors.

A look ahead: The MEPC will meet again in October, but a vote on the net-zero framework is not guaranteed. Although the delay may hurt the broader case for investment in the development of alternative fuels and related infrastructure, container carriers and ship owners remain firmly focused on LNG and methanol as the green fuels of choice in newbuild vessel orders. Even if the lack of a global regulatory framework from the IMO results in a patchwork of regional emissions-cutting initiatives, investment in dual-fuel ships capable of running on LNG or methanol will likely prove to be money well spent.

The next inflection: Narrowing the price differential between alternative fuels and traditional carbon-based fuel will be the key that unlocks adoption and accelerates the decarbonization of maritime shipping. Green fuels like e-methanol, e-methane and green ammonia remain significantly more expensive than conventional bunkers, and availability of biofuels is limited by supply constraints and high demand from other sectors like aviation. The IMO adopting its net-zero framework would be a major step towards narrowing the gap, guaranteeing demand for fuel suppliers hesitant to invest in large-scale production and, in turn, increasing availability and lowering costs for carriers.

email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com

The IMO’ s MEPC will meet again in October, but a vote on the netzero framework is not guaranteed. Shutterstock. com

58 Journal of Commerce | January 5, 2026 www. joc. com