|
“ We will not be able to reap the full benefits of these onshoring investments unless we also ensure that the critical infrastructure enabling global trade is advancing at the same pace.”
F. Paul De Maria
“ Whether it is more tariff chaos or another as-yet-unknown Black Swan event, volatility is inevitable in 2026 and beyond.”
Patrik Berglund
|
underperforming assets. Shippers and forwarders, meanwhile, face longer lead times, erratic space availability and reduced schedule integrity. The result is an environment where agility— not volume— is the decisive competitive factor.
Calls for broad“ data-sharing transparency” sound appealing, but in practice rarely work in shipping. Commercial mistrust, fragmented platforms and confidentiality barriers have kept visibility siloed. True collaboration has instead emerged in targeted operational exchanges— for example, shared chassis pools at inland hubs, pre-advice data between terminals and forwarders to align gate moves or coordinated berth windows for project and breakbulk operations. These narrow, outcome-based initiatives deliver tangible results because they are bilateral, contractual and operationally enforced— not aspirational.
Looking ahead, the path to stability lies in pragmatic coordination, not universal data utopias. Index-linked contracts, dynamic equipment repositioning and early cargo forecasting by exporters can help balance capacity and mitigate volatility. The industry’ s resilience will depend less on dashboards and more on disciplined execution, trust at the interface points and the ability to adapt network decisions in real time.
The winners of this cycle will be those who manage uncertainty through precision— not promises.
Xeneta
Patrik Berglund
Co-founder and CEO www. xeneta. com
Ocean container shipping has been hit by Black Swan events and geopolitical forces with increasing regularity in recent years— what sets US tariffs in 2025 apart?
Simply, the level of unpredictability and short-term volatility has changed the game.
|
United States Maritime Alliance( USMX)
F. Paul De Maria
Chairman and CEO www. usmx. com
While US shipping has seen a modest deceleration in growth in recent years, we need to look at the full picture. We made significant gains leading up to the pandemic, followed by a historic surge of cargo traveling through US ports at the start of this decade. Even with broad uncertainty around tariffs, port fees and shifts in manufacturing, 2025 did not experience a significant decrease. On the East and Gulf coasts, year-to-date volume were positive, even after coming off a 5 % increase in tonnage from 2023 to 2024.
However, growth plateaued, and there are opportunities to pursue smart policies and investments that will further strengthen our supply chains and support strategic opportunities to modernize ports. This can all be accomplished while continuing to advance the skilled workforce that has played such a significant role in facilitating these historic gains.
For example, the COVID-19 pandemic disruption caused average ocean container spot rates to spiral more than 500 %, but it was a slower burn and took two years of gradual increases for the peak to be reached in March 2022. In contrast, when the US and China announced a temporary lowering of tariffs in May, it took just three weeks for spot rates to spike 117 % due to the unexpected surge in demand. Rates then plummeted as demand eased in the subsequent months, down 73 % between June and October.
Chaos is also seen in offered capacity. It reduced 26 % on the trans-Pacific between April and May as demand fell off a cliff in the wake of Trump’ s“ Liberation Day” tariff announcement— then increased 49 % by July as carriers responded to the lower tariff cargo rush.
|
By prioritizing the purchase and buildout of modern equipment and processes, we are taking necessary steps to better insulate our domestic ports from the cyclical downturns that have long been a hallmark of the industry, while also making it easier for US businesses to compete on the global stage.
Much of the national policy conversation has been focused on how to strengthen US manufacturing capabilities, agriculture and energy, and regional supply chain strategies. We will not be able to reap the full benefits of these onshoring investments unless we also ensure that the critical infrastructure enabling global trade is advancing at the same pace. Deceleration is best met with a deliberate effort to safeguard against roadblocks that make trade more cumbersome. Carriers, port operators, employers and labor can work collaboratively to prepare for the future by continuing to invest in people, safety and technology.
The tap for US imports is being turned off and on with little or no warning. This is a nightmare situation for both shippers and carriers who both value stability and visibility.
No trade is safe from the US tariff chaos. At the same time as the drama was unfolding into the US West Coast, spot rates increased 318 % from China to East Coast South America between May and July.
Global trade craves stability. Even the 12-month tariff truce announced in October 2025 is not enough for shippers to make long term decisions, such as opening manufacturing facilities in another country or region.
Whether it is more tariff chaos or another as-yet-unknown Black Swan event, volatility is inevitable in 2026 and beyond. We must find a better way to buy and sell freight.
|