January 5, 2026 | Page 45

Annual Review & Outlook 2026
Maritime
Executive Commentary
House of Shipping
Ardavan Bayat
Global Chief Process and Transformation Officer www. houseofshipping. com
After years of post-pandemic growth, shipping demand is moderating. Container volumes remain volatile, influenced by tariff-driven frontloading and plateauing imports amid shifting consumer spending and elevated inventories.
For carriers, this is not a temporary lull but a structural adjustment. Unlike past cyclical downturns, the current phase reflects lasting structural shifts in trade rather than routine supply-demand swings. Several factors set this cycle apart, including digitalization and data transparency, financial strength, decarbonization headwinds, structural reconfiguration and the rise of logistics.
Unlike in previous downturns, carriers today leverage real-time data, AI forecasting and digital platforms to adjust pricing and capacity with more precision, making rate declines less likely to trigger the destructive price wars of the mid-2010s. Major carriers also enter this downturn with robust balance sheets and greater market concentration. The top 10 lines now control over 85 % of global capacity and have diversified into terminals, logistics and air freight, creating broader revenue streams and financial resilience to withstand weaker rates.
The industry’ s identity is evolving. Leading carriers are becoming integrated logistics platforms, blurring the lines between carriers, forwarders and technology companies.
Decarbonization goals are driving investment in alternative fuels and fleet renewal, even as earnings soften, forcing carriers to balance cost discipline with green investment. This cycle also reflects a fundamental shift in global trade. Growth has decoupled from GDP, driven by nearshoring, regionalization and tariff-induced realignments.
The shift toward digital, diversified and decarbonized operations is irreversible. This downturn should be a period of recalibration, enabling companies to position for the next wave of growth, driven by regional manufacturing, e-commerce and sustainable trade. While the US market slows, global trade continues to evolve.
For carriers, forwarders and port operators alike, success now lies in navigating the changing map, steering not toward yesterday’ s volumes, but tomorrow’ s value.
“ For carriers, this is not a temporary lull but a structural adjustment.”
Ardavan Bayat
up again, we’ re prepared to move cargo seamlessly and sustainably.
Every organization will approach this cycle differently, but the principle is the same: use this time strategically. The next surge will come, and those who prepare thoughtfully now will be best positioned to serve their customers and communities when it does.
Jon Monroe Consulting
Jon Monroe
President www. jonmonroe. com
Since President Trump’ s first term in office, he has consistently pushed to rebalance the economic relationship between the US and China. He was the first US president to publicly and forcefully acknowledge the structural advantages China has cultivated— advantages that have allowed it to dominate global manufacturing and trade.
What exactly has China done to warrant this rebalancing? The answer
lies not in manipulation, but in methodical execution. China has focused relentlessly on being better, faster, cheaper and more integrated across every facet of its industrial ecosystem.
For example, China’ s manufacturing strength stems from its deeply integrated supply chains. Unlike fragmented systems in other countries, Chinese manufacturers are co-located in dense industrial clusters with suppliers, assemblers and logistics providers, enabling real-time coordination, rapid scaling and cost efficiencies that are nearly impossible to replicate elsewhere. Beginning in the 1980s and accelerating through the 1990s and 2000s, China designated three“ pillar industries,” such as electronics, automotive, textiles or petrochemicals, for each major city based on regional strengths, resource availability and global demand.
In these specialized industrial clusters, the entire production cycle is streamlined, from raw materials to finished goods. Components arrive just in time, assembly lines run with minimal downtime and exports move swiftly through world-class ports and infrastructure. Simply put, China’ s supply chains are smarter and shorter.
But industrial clustering was only half of the equation. The Chinese government simultaneously invested in massive physical infrastructure— from high-speed
rail to inland waterways like the Yangtze River— to efficiently move goods from factory floors to global markets. Eastern port cities such as Shanghai, Ningbo and Shenzhen were transformed into worldclass logistics gateways, equipped with deepwater ports, bonded zones and integrated customs processing.
In short, China didn’ t stumble into dominance. They engineered it. And President Trump’ s efforts to recalibrate trade policy reflect a broader recognition: competing with China requires more than tariffs. It demands a strategic rethink of how we build, source and scale.
Konecranes
Jeff Podgorski
Vice President, Regional Sales Americas www. konecranes. com
Slowing US shipping growth, as reported by PIERS and the National Retail Federation, reinforces the need for stronger partnerships and smarter
“ Simply put, China’ s supply chains are smarter and shorter.”
Jon Monroe
“ Unlike past slowdowns, driven mainly by cyclical global demand, slowing US shipping has been shaped by tariffs and geopolitical tension.”
Jeff Podgorski
www. joc. com January 5, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 43