Maritime 2026 Annual Review & Outlook

Soft volumes to keep West Coast ports congestion free in early 2026

By Bill Mongelluzzo

The big picture: Container gateways on the US West Coast in 2025 were able to hold onto market share gained in 2024, as importers frontloading seasonal merchandise from Asia due to tariff uncertainties took advantage of transit times that are at least two weeks shorter than East Coast routings. West Coast gateways remained relatively free from congestion throughout the year, and those conditions are likely to continue given the weak import volumes forecasted for the first quarter of 2026.

Tariff-related demand swings left US West Coast imports up just 0.1 % through November. Chizhevskaya Ekaterina / Shutterstock. com providers, railroads and warehouses resulted in lower truck turn and container dwell times at the marine terminals and fluid operations at warehouses and inland rail terminals.

A look ahead: Cargo volumes at West Coast ports in 2026 will likely be impacted by macroeconomic forces in the US. With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February. Unless some clarity and predictability in the administration’ s tariff policies are forthcoming, retailers are likely to be conservative in ordering spring and summer merchandise, extending year-over-year declines in West Coast imports through the first half. However, cargo owners, terminal operators and truckers in Southern California will be keeping a close eye on a lengthy bridge redecking project slated to begin in January. Located at the entry to Los Angeles harbor, the 63-year-old Vincent Thomas Bridge handles 53,000 vehicles a day, including about 3,400 heavy-duty trucks, according to the California Department of Transportation( Caltrans). Traffic disruptions are anticipated throughout the redecking project, which will require one-directional bridge closures through November followed by a full shutdown from November 2026 to March 2028. Although Caltrans has implemented an alternative route for truck and vehicular traffic and an information network with real-time updates on detours and delays, stakeholders remain concerned about roadway congestion potentially backing up to the terminals.

The next inflection: With macroeconomic issues and US tariff policy likely to become clearer in the coming months, imports could rebound in the spring and summer, reigniting coastal competition for discretionary cargoes. If container lines return to the Suez Canal, East and Gulf coast ports could regain some of the market share they lost in the past two years.

email: bill. mongelluzzo @ spglobal. com

A look back: Like the wider trans-Pacific market, US West Coast ports benefited from tariff-related frontloading in the first half of 2025, but that growth turned to double-digit percentage declines in the fall. Amid the roller-coaster demand movements, the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland and the Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma handled 59.2 % of US imports from Asia through November, exactly the same share as in the first 11 months of 2024, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S & P Global. To handle the somewhat volatile swings in volumes— a record 1.2 million TEUs of laden imports crossed West Coast terminal docks in July, for example— port stakeholders continued to incorporate the lessons they learned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Improved shipment forecasts and information sharing among carriers, marine terminals, truckers, chassis

US West Coast ports maintain 2024 trans-Pacific share gains

Share of US containerized imports from Asia by coast

TEU market share

115 % 100 %

80 %

100 60 %

40 %

20 %

0 % L 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

West East Gulf

Source: PIERS, S & P Global

© 2026 S & P Global

30 Journal of Commerce | January 5, 2026 www. joc. com