Maritime 2026 Annual Review & Outlook

In Perspective

By Susan Oatway

Cargo volumes are stacking up nicely as the breakbulk and project sector sails into 2026, but are there enough ships to carry them? The short answer: it depends on the commodity. The Journal of Commerce projects fleet growth for heavy-lift( HL) capable vessels at an average annual rate of 4.1 % though 2029, but that might not be enough for the projected boom in heavy-lift cargoes.

After two decades of essentially flat energy demand, project-cargo hungry server farms are expected to boost US electricity consumption at a compound annual growth rate of more than 3 % from 2025 to 2030, according to an October report from S & P Global Energy. Driven by growth in renewable energy sources, particularly onshore wind and solar power, and demand from a variety of sources including data centers, electric vehicles and the industrial sector, global power generation is expected to increase by an average of 3.3 % per year through 2030.

Power generation cargoes gave the heavy-lift sector a welcome boost in 2025. With lead times for transformer and generator orders in some cases stretching beyond project development timescales, this is a cargo stream that will not dry up anytime soon.

Two years into the generative AI revolution, the mismatch between data center power requirements and supply has reached a critical point. This has led to growing interest in thermal energy options as evolving policy reshapes the energy sector. Momentum continues for the nuclear industry; gas turbine orders are at their highest

Global power generation growth to average 3.3 % through 2030

Annual power generation by technology, in terawatt-hours( TWh)

30,000

5 % 26,936 5 %

10,000 20,000

10,000

0 2020 2021

2022 2024 L 2026 2028 2030

Coal Hydropower Natural Gas

Nuclear Oil Offshore Wind Onshore Wind

Solar Others Total growth

Notes: Data as of October 2025 Source: Global Power and Renewables, S & P Global Energy

6 %

4 % 2

3 %

2 %

© 2026 S & P Global levels in nearly 25 years; and coal unit retirement plans are being delayed.

One shipper of transformers into the US told the Journal of Commerce they had never seen a market like it. All the big manufacturers are effectively full through 2030 as new power plants are being built, while older facilities— some of which are over 40 years old in the US— replace machinery.

While the shipment of larger pieces is the domain of specialized multipurpose carriers, the smaller pieces needed to manufacture a turbine or generator have more options for carriage. Equally, modules needed for new technology plants— such as chip manufacturers— are significantly lighter than modules being shipped for, say, a gas liquefaction plant. This extra breakbulk demand gives shippers the option to shop around for transport options.

Another project-cargo hungry sector is metals and mining, described by one shipper as currently“ on steroids.” Copper is in particularly high demand due to its role in the green energy transition and for electric vehicle manufacturing. The International Energy Agency warned in December that there could be a global supply deficit of 30 % by 2035, due to declining ore grades, rising capital costs and lengthy project development timelines despite increased investment in this sector.

There are several copper projects in South America that are expanding and more in Southeast Asia and the US that are at the feasibility stage. If these projects are commissioned, then demand for mining equipment will rocket— a boon for roll-on / roll-off carriers best suited to carrying these cargoes.

Meanwhile, simpler multipurpose vessels( MPV) are projected to grow at just 0.5 % per year over the same period. But these are the vessels that will compete with container carriers and bulkers, sectors in which overcapacity was already a problem as 2025 closed. When the Suez Canal route is deemed safe again, both fleets could see an effective capacity increase of up to 10 %.

The Journal of Commerce Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference in New Orleans, April 20-22, 2026, will bring together breakbulk and project cargo shippers, ocean and land-based specialized carriers, project forwarders, ports and terminals, and other breakbulk supply chain service providers in New Orleans. There, we will discuss the latest outlook for breakbulk and project cargo demand, the supply of vessels that will carry that cargo, and the complex logistics opportunities and challenges that face the breakbulk and project cargo logistics supply chain. Find out more at breakbulk. joc. com.

email: susan. oatway @ spglobal. com

28 Journal of Commerce | January 5, 2026 www. joc. com