Maritime 2026 Annual Review & Outlook

Container sector pressure could upend steady MPV market

By Carly Fields

MPV charter rates show ' remarkable ' stability in 2025: Toepfer

Daily rate for a 12,500-dwt MPV HL“ F-Type” vessel on a six- to 12-month charter

USD per day

$ 13,500

$ 13,000 $ 10,000 $ 12,500

$ 12,000

L

The big picture: Stability was the word of the day for the multipurpose vessel( MPV) sector in 2025, but pressure from competing fleets is likely to change that in 2026. Shippers unwilling— or unable— to ignore bargain basement rates from container lines will be tempted to divert breakbulk cargoes to container ships this year, potentially leaving MPVs scrabbling for volumes. Freight demand created by alternative fuel projects might provide some respite in the longer term, but the competitive battle will be fought before those cargoes materialize.

A look back: In an often muddled and sometimes downright chaotic freight market, carriers of bulk and project cargoes maintained a surprising sense of stability in 2025. In its final index report of the year, specialist shipbroker Toepfer Transport described the steady MPV charter rates reported throughout 2025 as“ remarkable.” Daily rates as measured by the Toepfer Multipurpose Index spent the year in a very narrow range of $ 12,690 per day to $ 13,246 per day, finishing the year at $ 12,818 per day.“ Fleet utilization remains at a satisfactory level, and the stable market indicates no likelihood of a yearend rally or decline,” the shipbroker said. As of Dec. 1,

$ 11,500

Low spot rates could lure traditional breakbulk cargoes like steel into containers. Shutterstock. com

L Jan 2024

Jul Jan 2025 Jul Jan 2026

Rate per day

Notes: Toepfer ' s Multipurpose Index( TMI) is compiled from operators, owners and brokers

Source: Toepfer Transport

© 2026 S & P Global

the Journal of Commerce put the MPV order book at 141 vessels, including 18 open-hatch vessels of at least 45,000 deadweight tons( dwt), equivalent to just 8 % of the operating fleet. And it is heavy-lift capable vessels that continue to dominate the order book, with 63 % of newbuildings on order capable of lifting over 240t safe working load( SWL). This lack of new tonnage, combined with limited ship recycling, steady demand and rates at levels that are helping to keep older MPVs employed, could help to maintain stability, if not for competing vessel sectors.

A look ahead: Carriers speaking with the Journal of Commerce at the end of 2025 confessed they were keeping a wary eye on the other sectors that traditionally compete with MPVs, with the container sector expected to cause the most angst heading into 2026. Although it was up slightly from the 2025 low set in October, the World Container Index assessed by Drewry, a composite of global average container spot rates, was down 44.5 % year over year in December. What’ s more, there is little evidence to suggest that container volumes on the major east-west trades will grow enough to keep pace with capacity and lift spot rates this year. Although the smaller, less-specialized MPVs are most at risk, if those operators lose cargo to container lines, that will create a ripple effect in which the smaller MPVs begin competing with larger MPV operators for project cargoes.

The next inflection: The alternative fuel enigma has yet to be solved for the maritime shipping industry. For MPV operators, that lack of clarity makes it frustratingly difficult to order newbuild ships, but it also leaves a door open for a new source of cargo: industrial projects related to green fuel production and infrastructure. Whether hydrogenbased options, biofuels, LNG or nuclear win out, the construction of large-scale production facilities will support a boom in project cargoes well beyond 2026.

email: carly. fields @ spglobal. com

26 Journal of Commerce | January 5, 2026 www. joc. com