Maritime 2026 Annual Review & Outlook

Red Sea return poses disruption threat to Asia – Europe trade

By Greg Knowler

Carriers could switch back to the shorter route through the Suez Canal( pictured) as early as H1 2026. Shutterstock. com

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The big picture: After two years of sailing around southern Africa to avoid the risk of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Asia – Europe carriers could return to Suez Canal transits in 2026, possibly even in the first half. Although the timeline is still uncertain, a resumption of the shorter Suez routing brings its own risks, with analysts warning of the potential for significant port disruption and upward rate pressure.

A look back: Like in 2024, the Asia – Europe peak season came earlier than usual in 2025, with volumes ramping up in early May rather than the typical June start. Fueled by concerns over persistent port congestion in Europe— on top of extended transit times due to diversions away from the Suez Canal— importers rushed to build inventory for summer sales. Cargo owners had already baked the additional two weeks ships take to sail around southern Africa into their supply chains, but planning for port congestion proved more difficult as bottlenecks shifted dynamically among European terminals, sometimes within the same port. The strong demand continued into the fall, with Asia – Europe container volumes rising on a year-over-year basis for seven straight months from March through September, according to data from Container Trades Statistics( CTS).“ We haven’ t seen growth like that on the Far East westbound trade since before the global financial crisis,” Michael Aldwell, executive vice president of sea logistics at forwarder Kuehne + Nagel, told the Journal of Commerce

Asia – Europe spot rates rebounding from October lows

Container spot rates from Asia to N. Europe and Mediterranean, in USD per FEU

USD per FEU

$ 11,080 $ 10,000

$ 8,000

$ $ 10,000 6,000

$ 4,000

$ 2,000

$ 0 L Jan 2024

Jul Jan 2025

North Asia to UK Continent

Jul North Asia to Mediterranean

Dec, 2025

L in late November. The early peak saw spot rates spike in late May and early June before gradually declining through October. As end-of-year contract talks between shippers and carriers neared, carriers imposed a series of fortnightly freight-all-kinds rate increases from Oct. 1. Although not fully accepted by the market, the rate hikes, along with aggressive blank sailings, boosted average pricing from Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean by 92.3 % and 150 %, respectively, from early October to mid-December, according to Platts, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S & P Global.

A look ahead: Shippers can pencil in a return to the Red Sea in 2026, but neither carriers nor cargo owners are in any great rush to do so. Those moving refrigerated or otherwise perishable commodities would be thrilled to cut their transit times, but most shippers prefer consistency and plannability, even if it takes a couple more weeks for cargo to get from port to port. Forwarders and ship owners have warned that carriers switching Asia – Europe services back to the Suez Canal route en masse will result in waves of vessels and cargo arriving at major European gateways that were already at maximum capacity for much of 2025. From a supply-demand perspective, reverting to the traditional Suez transits will release effective capacity into a trade already awash with excess tonnage. That means carriers will likely be forced to blank sailings and reduce ship speeds to manage capacity and prevent rates from bottoming out. Planning for such an event is practically impossible, particularly without a clear timeline, but Asia – Europe shippers should expect disrupted ocean schedules and continued— possibly worsening— congestion that will likely take months to clear.

The next inflection: A wholesale return to the Red Sea would cause intense disruption on the Asia – Europe trade, with ships sailing through the Suez Canal converging with those sailing around Africa at already congested European ports. To mitigate vessel bunching and the release of pent-up capacity, carriers could keep some services on the round-Africa route during the transition period.

Source: Platts, S & P Global © 2026 S & P Global email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com

24 Journal of Commerce | January 5, 2026 www. joc. com