Maritime

2026 Annual Review & Outlook

Trans-Atlantic capacity injection overtakes market demand

By Greg Knowler

The big picture: An injection of vessels pushed available capacity on the trans-Atlantic beyond market demand in 2025 despite relatively steady volumes. That leaves carriers with little leverage to raise rates from the sustained 16-month low reached in the fourth quarter.

Planned trans-Atlantic capacity swells to record high in January

Container ship capacity on North Europe – US East and Gulf coast services, deployed and blanked, with planned capacity

TEU capacity

522.8k 500k

A look back: US importers frontloading cargo ahead of threatened 30 % tariffs on EU goods caused a spring volume surge on the westbound trans-Atlantic. US imports from North Europe peaked in March at 219,560 TEUs, up 14.3 % from March 2024 and the third-highest total for any month in nearly nine years of data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global. However, that momentum waned following a late-July trade deal that promised to cap US tariffs on most EU imports at 15 %, dragging year-over-year volume growth through November down to just 2.5 %. At the same time, carriers added capacity to the trade via new and larger vessels. Mediterranean Shipping Co.( MSC), for example, added a trans-Atlantic leg to its Asia – Mediterranean Dragon service, which operates with vessels averaging roughly 13,000 TEUs. For context, the largest vessel deployed on any other service between the Mediterranean and East Coast of North America was 9,600 TEUs. That helped boost the average size of container ships deployed on trans-Atlantic routes to nearly 6,200 TEUs in the third quarter, compared with 5,500 TEUs at the start of the year, according to data from Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis.

A look ahead: As 2026 begins, US import demand remains uncertain, but the record amounts of capacity container lines plan to deploy in January and February could put further pressure on already weak rates. After briefly rising to

Source: eeSea

$ 2,000 per FEU in March, average spot pricing from North Europe to the US East Coast has been stuck at $ 1,400 per FEU since early November, according to Platts, also part of S & P Global. Even with a significant number of blank sailings, carriers plan to deploy more than 435,000 TEUs of capacity between North Europe and the US East and Gulf coasts in January and 390,000 TEUs in February, both of which would be all-time highs for the trade, according to eeSea. Further complicating demand projections are growing tensions over the implementation of the US-EU trade agreement. EU member states have been slow to approve the agreement, which would eliminate EU tariffs on most US products and reduce US tariffs on EU goods to 15 %, on the grounds that it unfairly favors the US.

The next inflection: The trans-Atlantic is indirectly exposed to a resumption of regular Suez Canal transits. If congestion spreads across European ports as predicted when Asia – Europe vessels return to the Red Sea, it will be felt acutely on the shorter routes between Europe and the US East Coast. US importers would be wise to increase inventory levels of critical stock before carriers flip the Suez switch to mitigate any resulting disruption.

email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com

© 2026 S & P Global

Despite a strong spring, trans- Atlantic imports grew just 2.5 % in the first 11 months of 2025. Daniel Wright98 / Shutterstock. com

22 Journal of Commerce | January 5, 2026 www. joc. com