Annual Review & Outlook 2026 Maritime

Not-so-good tidings

China tariffs, economic uncertainty weigh on pre-Lunar New Year volumes

The big picture: After an earlier-than-usual July peak season caused by tariff-related frontloading, the trans- Pacific trade enters 2026 in the midst of a deepening demand slowdown. Carriers are hoping a traditional pre- Lunar New Year rush will boost volumes and help buoy spot rates on the largest US trade lane, but the chances of a significant uptick are dwindling rapidly.

Carrier GRIs will likely focus on maintaining a floor on spot rates, not increasing the ceiling. Ceri Breeze / Shutterstock. com

By Bill Mongelluzzo

A look back: Asia – US trade in 2025 was marked primarily by shippers frontloading imports to reduce the impact of higher tariffs. The Trump administration issued more than 100 tariff decisions affecting imports from virtually every country in the world, with the largest increases in duty rates on goods made in China. As a result, containerized US imports from Asia grew 3.2 % in the first eight months of 2025 before tumbling 8.8 % year over year from September through November, according to data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global. That volatility was also evident in two large spikes in spot rates in the first half, both of which were followed by swift declines. Average pricing from Asia to the US West Coast exceeded $ 5,000 per FEU in early January, fell to $ 1,600 per FEU in March, soared to $ 6,000 per FEU in June and then dropped to $ 1,700 per FEU in July, according to Platts, also part of S & P Global. Starting Oct. 1, carriers launched a series of bimonthly general rate increases( GRIs) in an attempt to prevent spot rates from collapsing, but the effect of each GRI was short lived, and by mid-December, Asia – US West Coast spot rates had fallen to $ 1,270 per FEU, the lowest reading since July 2023.

Asia – USWC spot rates fall to 29-month low in December

Container spot rates from North Asia to US West and East coasts, in USD per FEU

USD per FEU

$ 10,000 9,631

$ 8,000

$ $ 10,000 6,000

$ 4,000

$ 2,000

$ 0 L 2023 2024 2025Dec, 2025

North Asia to US East Coast North Asia to US West Coast

A look ahead: Months of frontloading explain the harsh slowdown in the final months of 2025, but with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026. Despite a one-year negotiating pause in reciprocal US – China tariffs that began in November, imports from China still face an effective duty rate of 47 %. Retailers placing orders for spring merchandise cautiously, and the typical rush of factory production and container vessel bookings in the lead up to Lunar New Year celebrations in China are expected to fall flat, leaving volumes well below the levels recorded in 2025. Retailers expect total US imports to fall year over year in each of the first four months of the year, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation( NRF). Carriers have not dismissed the possibility of additional GRIs in the new year, but like in the latter part of 2025, their efforts will be focused more on maintaining a floor on spot rates, as opposed to increasing the ceiling.

The next inflection: Trans-Pacific carriers and their customers are looking ahead to two possible developments in 2026 that could further depress freight rates: a forecasted 4 % increase in global container ship capacity and whether carriers will return to regular transits through the Suez Canal, which could increase effective capacity from Asia to the US East Coast.

January 5, 2026 | Page 21

Not-so-good tidings