Shippers 2026 Annual Review & Outlook
Executive Commentary
“ Retailers may hope for more consistency and certainty in 2026, but they have planned for a range of contingencies.”
Brian Dodge
“ We need strategic and focused trade policies that will lower inflation and costs for hard-working American families.”
Matthew Shay
“ Those who invest in collaboration, transparency, and mutual success today will be best positioned when the market inevitably turns.”
John Janson
Retail Industry Leaders Association( RILA)
Brian Dodge
President and CEO www. rila. org
Retailers anticipated a shakeup in the global trade landscape this year, but the unpredictable nature of US trade policy made 2025 the most tumultuous year since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Although they also prioritized and accelerated plans to diversify their sourcing and manufacturing where possible, most retailers shifted, paused or canceled shipments in response to tariff uncertainty, upending the usual rhythms and peaks of the shipping year, scrambling transportation markets and bewildering analysts.
All this rapid-fire replanning carries a price tag, and as retail supply chain executives head into 2026, they are evaluating how to plan and budget for an uncertain outlook.
Technology has been a core component of building responsive supply chains, enabling multidimensional scenario planning and expediting data analysis. As AI
National Retail Federation
Matthew Shay
President and CEO www. nrf. com
If the past five years have shown us anything, it’ s that uncertainty will remain the biggest challenge for retailers and shippers in 2026. The biggest uncertainty surrounds the Trump administration’ s US trade policy and on-again, offagain tariffs. We need strategic and focused trade policies that will lower inflation and costs for hard-working American families.
As 2025 moved toward its end, the US Supreme Court heard arguments on the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act( IEEPA). If the court upholds the lower court decisions against using tariffs under IEEPA, many expect the administration to pivot to use other tariff authorities to replace the IEEPA tariffs. We have certainly seen an expansion of scope of Section 232 tariffs and expect more of that in 2026. In addition to other tariffs, there will be significant questions about IEEPA tariff refunds and how the administration would process them.
The other major issue for 2026 will be the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which will provide an opportunity to identify and address any operational challenges the countries determine. Retailers look forward to this review process to ensure that the agreement remains trilateral, with workable rules of origin and maintains the duty-free benefits for all qualifying goods.
Retailers will do everything they can to ensure that consumers have access to high-value products at affordable prices. In order to achieve that, we need clarity from the administration and elected officials on future trade policies and time to implement these policies, which will impact sourcing decisions. As we have seen, supply chains are extremely complex, and they cannot be changed overnight.
continues to evolve from hype to real-world supply chain applications, retailers can make smarter, more precise decisions about inventory strategy, network optimization and transportation planning. In turn, more efficient supply chains can help reduce transport emissions and increase sustainability.
Technology is also helping retailers combat the pernicious threat of cargo theft. Accurate tracking and prevention is difficult, but US lawmakers have an opportunity to constrict this multi-billion-dollar theft pipeline by passing the bipartisan Combating Organized Retail Crime Act in 2026.
Cargo theft joins trade uncertainty, fluctuating transportation markets, cost-to-serve pressures and other factors in reinforcing leading retailers’ focus on working with smaller networks of trusted partners. Secure, resilient adaptable supply chains require a team of partners working in concert to serve our customers and support the millions of jobs in our ecosystem.
In 2026, retail supply chains will continue moving and evolving at an unprecedented pace, requiring leaders to learn and adapt faster than ever before. Retailers may hope for more consistency and certainty in 2026, but they have planned for a range of contingencies to ensure that no disruption impedes the growth and dynamism of our industry.
SanMar
John Janson
Vice President, Global Logistics www. sanmar. com
As we look toward 2026, the logistics and transportation industry faces a period of profound volatility. From shifting geopolitical alliances to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policy, nearly every facet of global transportation is being tested.
In this environment, strategic relationships are not just valuable— they’ re essential. Deep, trust-based partnerships across the supply chain provide the adaptability and shared resilience needed to navigate disruption. These relationships are the connective tissue that hold networks together when markets are unstable. At SanMar, a global apparel company currently in more
14 Journal of Commerce | January 5, 2026 www. joc. com