Intermodal , Drayage and Chassis
Special Report divert . The migration of volume back to the West Coast was an intermodal tailwind as intermodal share on the West Coast is generally much higher than on the East Coast . The US West Coast ’ s import share reached 45 % in November , 4.5 percentage points higher than in the same month the prior year , according to data from PIERS , a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global , and port authorities .
The third source of strength was the frontloading of imports , particularly later in the year . Importers raced to land cargo in advance of a possible second longshore strike and potential new tariffs . Thankfully , the former problem appears to have been resolved , but the tariff impacts , although unknown in timing and scope , still loom . This frontloading resulted in a notable feature of 2024 : an extremely late annual peak , in week 50 . Normally , the peak occurs in week 39 .
Looking forward , it seems likely that most of the factors that drove volume in 2024 will not be present in 2025 . The labor situation has been settled , and — hopefully — a ceasefire in Gaza will deprive the Houthis of a reason to keep firing missiles , leading to a reopening of the Red Sea / Suez Canal route .
In addition , the piper will eventually have to be paid for all the volume that was pulled forward into 2024 that ordinarily might have moved in 2025 , so the prospects for international intermodal this year are muted to say the least .
Conversely , the picture is a bit brighter for the domestic sector , despite its disappointing performance in 2024 . Growth in long-haul truckload demand last year was far weaker than for international . This kept a lid on domestic intermodal and left share gains as the only avenue for meaningful improvement . This has been slow in coming , although there was a tantalizing uptick in the third quarter that , if sustained , could eventually turn into something meaningful .
North American intermodal volumes jump 7.5 % in 2024
Weekly North American intermodal volumes , 2024 vs . 2023 and 2010-19 average
443
400
350 220 300
250
200 |
|
|
|
|
|
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Week 1 |
Week 1112 |
Week 21 |
L |
Week 31 |
Week 41 |
Week 51 |
Source : IANA , AAR , GTC Analysis
The near-term prospects for the economy seem reasonably bright . The incoming administration ’ s promised tariff actions and mass deportations will be disruptive and inflationary , but it will take some time for the effects of these policies to be felt .
I ’ m not expecting to see any significant acceleration in domestic intermodal activity , but rather some modest improvement . This will still result in domestic outperforming international in 2025 .
Of course , history tells us that these projections will likely be upended by some “ black swan ” event that might not even be on the radar right now . There seems to be no shortage of potential hot spots and disruptors out there , so it is best to keep options open and be prepared to be nimble once again to meet the challenges that await in 2025 .
email : lgross @ intermodalindepth . com
10 Year Average 2023 2024
© 2025 S & P Global
Muted international intermodal prospects will result in domestic outperforming international in 2025 .
L
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