2025 Trucking Outlook
Special Report
Trucking volumes flatline through August
For-hire trucking ton-mile index , seasonally adjusted
Index Reading ( 100 = 2017 )
US truckload pricing declined yoy in 20 of last 21 months
US long-haul truckload producer price index ( PPI )
219
210
113
200 150 190
180
110
105
100 100 95
90
85
80 L Jan 2022 Jul Jan 2023 Jul Jan 2024 Aug , 2024 Jul
Source : Fed , Census Bureau , BEA , and BLS by Jason Miller , PhD
170 L Jan 2023 Jul Jan 2024
Jun , 2024 Jul
TL PPI
Notes : US BLS producer price indices are based on selling prices for trucking services
Source : US Bureau of Labor Statistics data , JOC analysis
© 2024 S & P Global
© 2024 S & P Global
Seasonality , regional growth
There are “ green shoots ” that signal improvement in freight demand , other speakers said . Much of that improvement , however , has been seasonal and regional .
“ The experience right now between Southern California and the East Coast in terms of freight markets is drastically different ,” Hammett said . “ I think that we need to begin to expect regional tightness in certain places that you may not see across the rest of America . Regional tightness doesn ’ t mean a freight market shift .”
In the Midwest , “ We ’ re still very flat on our volumes , but what we have seen in the last three months is fewer companies are seeing drops in volume ,” said Matt Hart , executive director of the Illinois Trucking Association .
“ Volumes have stopped declining , but they ’ re still very flat .”
“ We know volumes have stopped declining , but they ’ re still very flat ,” he said . “ They haven ’ t taken off .”
Other economic indicators support claims that a freight recovery is not yet under way , although spot and contract truckload rates have begun rising .
The Cass Freight Shipments Index dropped 1.7 % in September from August before seasonal adjustment . The American Trucking Associations For-Hire Freight Tonnage Index was 6.4 % below its non-seasonally adjusted August reading in September .
Routing guide depth metrics from C . H . Robinson Worldwide have dropped in recent months after rising toward July , Hammett said , indicating that primary carriers in contract routing guides are still picking up their customers ’ freight most of the time .
36 Journal of Commerce | December 2 , 2024 www . joc . com