2025 Trucking Outlook

Special Report

Prolonged US freight ‘ recession ’ to drag into 2025

By William B . Cassidy

The so-called freight recession may be close to its end , but it is still very much alive , according to shippers , brokers and trucking executives . Those executives don ’ t expect the US freight market to begin expanding until 2025 , perhaps closer to mid-year , driven by increased manufacturing output and home sales .

“ We are in a transitionary period ,” Ryan Hammett , director of market intelligence and insights at C . H . Robinson Worldwide , told the Traffic Club of Chicago ’ s Transportation & Logistics Customer Forum on Nov . 13 .

“ You can say the freight recession is over all you want , but if the freight doesn ’ t materialize , it ’ s not .”

“ There are signs that things are changing , and we ’ re moving from a period of oversupply into a little bit more balance ,” Hammett said , referring to truckload capacity .

But while supply in the form of trucks may be contracting , demand in the form of shipments hasn ’ t yet expanded significantly , Hammett and other speakers told the forum .

“ There ’ s only a certain amount of freight out there ,” said Mitch Morrin , North American outbound logistics lead for Owens Corning . “ You can say the freight recession is over all you want , but if the freight doesn ’ t materialize in the marketplace , it ’ s not .”

Morrin expressed concern that some trucking companies will push for rate increases based on premature claims the freight downcycle that began in May 2022 is finished .

“ Are they going to talk expansion into existence ? That ’ s going to be tough ,” he said .

34 Journal of Commerce | December 2 , 2024 www . joc . com