Global Maritime Focus
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Deployed vessel capacity in the trans-Atlantic fell 8.2 % year over year in October . AM-IDE / Shutterstock . com
Peter Sand , chief analyst at Xeneta , also said the trans-Atlantic was back in “ calm waters ,” calling the trade “ solid and stable ” with cargo owners in no rush to ship .
“ It appears shippers are not expecting much disruption from a port strike or after the [ US ] presidential election ,” he said . “ There is no big surge expected in terms of volume in the coming months , but also no big drop , and instead more of a rebalancing of the inventory ratio .”
Cutting capacity
Trans-Atlantic spot rates sliding from October peak
Container spot rates from North Europe to US East Coast , in USD per FEU
$ 7,000
Not even the removal of 91,100 TEUs in capacity from the trade so far this year could prop up rates , with Alphaliner reporting that by October , container slots in the trans-Atlantic fleet had decreased by 8.2 % year over year .
The analyst said in a recent newsletter that the cellular fleet reduction was not only the result of the closure of a few loops , but also due to large ships being replaced by smaller units .
The largest capacity reductions come from CMA CGM , which has withdrawn 30.9 % of its trans-Atlantic capacity this year , while Cosco Shipping has cut 22.7 % and Maersk 12.1 %. Mediterranean Shipping Co ., the largest tonnage provider on the trade lane with a 41 % market share , has cut trans-Atlantic capacity this year by 7.9 %, according to Alphaliner .
USD per FEU
$ 6,000 $ 5,000 $ 1,000 4,000 4,185
$ 3,000
$ 2,000
L
“ There is no big surge expected in terms of volume in the coming months , but also no big drop .”
Imports from N . Europe grow for 8th straight month in September
Containerized US imports from North Europe , in laden TEUs , with yoy change
TEU volume
$ 1,000 $ 0
Source : Platts , S & P Global
200,000
150,000
100,000 109,444 100,0000
50,000
Source : PIERS , S & P Global
LJan 2023 Jul Jan 2024 Jul
10 %
-40 -10% -10%
-20 %
-30 %
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
-40% |
|
Oct
L
|
Jan 2023
Mar
23 ,
Apr
23
|
Jul |
Oct |
Jan 2024 |
Apr |
Jul |
Oct |
TEU
North Europe to US East Coast
Year-over-year % change
Nov , 2024
© 2024 S & P Global
0 %
Year-over-year % change
© 2024 S & P Global
Hapag-Lloyd is the only carrier to increase its trans- Atlantic fleet , adding 12,500 TEUs — roughly 6 % — of capacity to the trade in the first 10 months of 2024 .
Panhauser said the additional capacity from Hapag- Lloyd was to accommodate demand for its popular “ Quality Freight Product ” ( QFP ), a fixed rate contract aimed at removing fluctuating prices .
“ The QFP gave them stable volume at a healthy rate level and gave them the opportunity to secure further market volume ,” he said .
Ocean Network Express ( ONE ) is the only carrier that has not yet announced its trans-Atlantic service offering from February next year . Alphaliner expects ONE will soon announce a slot deal with a member of the Ocean Alliance , either CMA CGM , Cosco Shipping , OOCL or Evergreen . The Japanese-owned carrier is currently the fourth-largest carrier on the trade with a 7 % market share , and most of its ships are trading in the all-water North Europe-West Coast North America loop of THE Alliance , which also serves Halifax and Port Everglades .
ONE is in a position to jointly offer three loops connecting North Europe with the US East Coast , Gulf Coast and West Coast .
email : greg . knowler @ spglobal . com
22 Journal of Commerce | December 2 , 2024 www . joc . com