Global Maritime Focus

Special Report

Early Lunar New Year , tariffs , strike risk extend trans-Pacific peak

By Michael Angell and Bill Mongelluzzo

A confluence of strong pre-Lunar New Year cargo bookings , worries over new and increased US import tariffs and the potential for a second port labor strike on the East and Gulf coasts is expected to keep trans-Pacific demand — and rates — elevated through the end of 2024 , according to shippers and container carriers .

The earlier timing of Lunar New Year celebrations , during which factories in Asia generally shut down for at least a week , is “ likely to cause some stress in import capacity ,” Don Davis , vice president at Zim Integrated Shipping Services , said during the Coalition of New

England Companies for Trade ( CONECT ) conference in early November .

“ We see our booking pattern increasing when we look at November and December ,” Davis said . “ It ’ s likely that there ’ s going to be some capacity constraints until the end of the year .”

The director of international logistics for a furniture retailer who asked not to be identified said more factories are shutting down for Lunar New Year and for longer durations than in past years .

“ It used to be just for a week ; now , Lunar New Year might last two , three weeks ,” the source said , adding that the retailer is looking to step up its imports over the next two months to get ahead of those closures .

Shippers are also shifting volumes forward following the election of Donald Trump , who has promised to impose sweeping tariffs across all import goods , to a second presidential term .

The logistics director , for example , said the furniture retailer had two sets of purchase orders at the ready depending on which candidate was elected . With the election now over , the retailer is moving more goods sooner due to the threat of tariffs .

18 Journal of Commerce | December 2 , 2024 www . joc . com