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New political precedent to drive on-hold US longshore negotiations

By Peter Tirschwell

Following President Joe Biden ’ s intervention in October to end the brief strike at East and Gulf coast ports , US longshore labor negotiations can no longer be seen through a traditional lens . The precedent now firmly established is that politics will prevail over the traditional give-and-take at the negotiating table .

A traditional lens on the current scenario , following the suspension of talks again by the International Longshoremen ’ s Association ( ILA ) on Nov . 13 , would show labor and management dug in with few evident pathways to bridge the gap and the real possibility of another strike as of Jan . 15 .

Management ’ s fundamental view is that given minimal physical additions to US port capacity , efficiency gains through automation — starting with contractual rights — are required to move growing volumes through existing facilities . Although no current union jobs would be placed at risk , the union sees automation as a threat to its nearly 150-year-old franchise and is intent on rolling back the limited right of terminal operators to automate under the existing contract . When the union suspended further talks over issue , management , represented by the United States Maritime

The ILA and USMX have until Jan . 15 to finalize a six-year coastwide labor contract . MARK FELIX / AFP / AFP via Getty Images

Alliance ( USMX ), said the ILA is intent on “ restricting future use of technology that has existed in some of our ports for nearly two decades .”

But the real question is : Does it matter ? Is the economic rationale for greater port efficiency relevant in terms of how decisions will get made over the coming months ? Does it matter that US ports appear nowhere in the top 50 of the Container Port Performance Index , a data set developed by the Journal of Commerce , and that costly bottlenecks are a frequent occurrence at US ports ?

Conversations the Journal of Commerce has had with multiple sources close to the negotiations say with a Republican , pro-business administration coming into power on Jan . 20 and anti-union figures including Elon Musk advising President-elect Donald Trump , management may have more leverage in the negotiations than they did in October .

But sources admit the possibility that management ’ s position is , in fact , no stronger than it was . In other words , even with the White House changing hands , the outcome will be the same as it was in October — presidential intervention in favor of the union irrespective of the costs to the industry and the economy .

The carriers being on the losing end was precisely what happened in October . The USMX and its ocean carrier members were all but forced by the White House to agree to a 62 % pay increase for dockworkers over six years in a preliminary settlement on the wage issue . The “ deal ” ended the strike after three days and took the issue off the table as a dangerous campaign factor for Democrats .

Little apparent leverage

This time , the campaign is no longer a factor , but the new administration will likely be similarly disinterested in a strike of any significant length and , it can be assumed , will get directly involved , following precedent set by a series of presidents going back to George W . Bush , who acted to end a 10-day lockout of West Coast dockworkers in 2002 .

What does the incoming President-elect Trump do ? Reject the views of blue-collar workers — a core Trump constituency — and a union that did him a favor during the campaign by withholding an endorsement of his opponent , as it had given to Biden in 2020 ?

Having met with Trump late last year , documented in a photo widely spread on social media , ILA President Harold Daggett said in a social media post that “ President Trump promised to support the ILA in its opposition to automated terminals in the US ,” a statement that can hardly be written off . If Trump is all too willing to raise the costs of trade via tariffs , the reasoning goes , why would he be concerned about inefficiency at ports ?

That is why some close to the negotiations believe USMX will ultimately agree to the union ’ s demands , including agreeing to its terms on automation . The result would be avoiding a strike , or at the very least a lengthy one , and averting another White House showdown management had no chance of winning in October and could have no chance of winning in January .

“ The employers in the end are likely to agree to language that effectively bans new automation for the life of the contract ,” a knowledgeable source told the Journal of Commerce .

16 Journal of Commerce | December 2 , 2024 www . joc . com