Surface Transportation

North American domestic rail volumes grew 2.5 % to 2.22 million containers in Q3. dvande / Shutterstock. com

Increasing intermodal savings might not yield higher rates in 2026

By Ari Ashe

US shippers saved an average of 21 % on spot market freight and nearly 25 % on contract loads in the third quarter by using domestic intermodal instead of longhaul trucking as truckload spot rates began to recover, according to the latest Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index( ISI).

Intermodal contract rates were flat in the third quarter compared with a year ago— up 0.4 % excluding fuel, but down 0.2 % including fuel. Momentum picked up in September and October, however, with spot truckload rates on indexed lanes rising 2.9 % and 3 % year over year, respectively.

Truckload spot rates tend to be a leading indicator, which results in truckload contract rates rising, with intermodal rates eventually following as capacity tightens.

North American railroads hauled 2.22 million domestic containers in the third quarter, up 2.5 % compared with a year ago, according to the Intermodal Association of North America( IANA). The results were better than the Journal of Commerce forecast of a 1 % decline for the third quarter, due to an unusually strong September.

IANA reported domestic container volume grew 5.8 % year over year in September.

“[ It was ] a delayed West Coast peak season from what we originally anticipated,” Phil Yeager, CEO of intermodal service provider Hub Group, said on an Oct. 30 earnings call.“ We did not see that inventory materially impact

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domestic shipping until following the Labor Day holiday. Strong West Coast shipping demand in September continued through October, and customers are indicating that will be maintained into November.”

The Spot ISI averaged 121.1 in the third quarter, up from 120.0 a year earlier, while the Contract ISI slipped to 124.5 from 126. Index values above 100 indicate intermodal is the more cost-effective mode; the higher the index number, the greater the savings. A spot ISI of 121.1 translates to a 21.1 % savings on intermodal versus truckload, and a contract ISI of 124.5 implies a 24.5 % savings.

All calculations assume local drayage at origin and destination, so shippers with distribution centers more than 30 minutes from the terminal will save less than the index values.

In terms of raw dollars, intermodal shippers saved an average of $ 563 per container on the spot market in

Intermodal rates flat as truckload pricing climbs from April low

Average spot rates for US truckload and domestic intermodal rail, in USD per mile

USD per mile

$ 2.5 $ 2.4

$ 2.2

$ 1.0 2.0

$ 1.8

$ 1.6

$ 1.4 L 2023

2024 Jun 2025,

Source: S & P Global

Spot Truckload Shipper Rates

Spot Intermodal Shipper Rates

© 2025 S & P Globa

December 1, 2025 | Journal of Commerce 39