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Global air freight volumes increased 3.9 % in the first 10 months of 2025, while capacity grew 6 %. Markus Mainka / Shutterstock. com

Air freight growth remains solid as verticals support positive outlook

By Greg Knowler

Global air cargo recorded its 26th consecutive month of growth in October, with solid demand across leading air freight verticals expected to continue into 2026, air cargo executives say.

Even another round of US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is unlikely to stop this growth, with airlines able to rapidly adjust capacity as trade flows shift, delegates at The International Air Cargo Association’ s( Tiaca) annual Air Cargo Forum were told on Oct. 4.

“ We have had such a long stretch when it comes to air freight growth,” said Stefan Krikken, global head of air freight at forwarder DSV.“ The peak is relatively slow this year, but there’ s still a lot of positive momentum in cloud computing, e-commerce [ and ] aerospace, as well as the trade shifts.

“ The verticals in air freight are becoming more sophisticated and demanding... the shifts into Southeast Asia markets, like Vietnam, Thailand, [ and ] the Indian subcontinent are really giving us opportunities to create new solutions, so it is looking very positive for 2026,” Krikken added.

Partly cloudy forecast

Ryan Keyrouse, CEO of air freight analyst Rotate, warned that the 26 months of uninterrupted growth could not continue forever, but he agreed there were“ quite some reasons” to be optimistic.

“ The US inventory-to-sales ratio has been positive for seven of the last eight months, a good sign for air cargo,” Keyrouse told the Tiaca forum.“ Freighter utilization in October was also at a record 15 block hours per day on average, which is another sign of solid demand.”

Global volume from January through October is up 3.9 % year over year while capacity expanded 6 %, Rotate data shows. But the shift in trade as China focused on other markets has left lanes out of Vietnam and Malaysia facing significant capacity pressure.

Still, there are areas of concern in global air freight. On the“ caution” side of the scale, Keyrouse placed steadily improving ocean schedule reliability that is pushing down rates and attracting discretionary cargo to switch from air freight.

Also among trade destabilizing factors are the unpredictable US tariffs, and although Keyrouse agreed the tariffs introduced uncertainty into cargo markets, he argued that carriers were able to quickly move freighters around as demand shifted away from China-US routes after the Trump administration announced its broad global tariffs on April 2.

“ The peak is relatively slow this year, but there’ s still a lot of positive momentum.”

“ The US tariff uncertainty is a reason to be unsure, and who knows what could happen next on any given morning, but we’ ve had tariffs this year and it’ s only shifted supply chains,” Keyrouse said.“ The aircraft industry has proven itself to be resilient in shifting capacity and just continuing to grow.”

The positive expectation for 2026 was repeated often at the Tiaca conference. Martin Drew, chief strategy and transformation officer at Atlas Air Worldwide, said some of the volume that left the trans-Pacific is now returning as complex customs clearance formalities following the removal of US de minimis exemptions were being ironed out.

Jeroen Giling, senior vice president of cargo for continental Europe at Swissport, said 2025 started slowly with the China-US tariffs on low-value e-commerce goods

34 Journal of Commerce | December 1, 2025 www. joc. com