Global Maritime Focus
Special Report
Container ship diversions away from the Red Sea began in late 2023 following the first Houthi attacks soon after the start of the Israel-Hamas war, soaking up between 8 % and 12 % of global tonnage— depending on varying estimates from analysts and carriers— due to longer transits around southern Africa.
“ We think that the ceasefire is likely to stay in place for as long as there is commitment for the hostage exchanges to continue,” Kennedy told the Journal of Commerce. But he added that he expected some form of military operations to begin again in Gaza in the medium term, which would then likely trigger a Houthi response. S & P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.
An undated Houthi letter posted Nov. 9 on X, formerly Twitter, stated that the group would resume attacks in the Red Sea if the Gaza ceasefire ended. Major ocean carriers have welcomed the ceasefire that was struck on Oct. 18, but have been cautious on giving any timeline other than ruling out a return in the short term. The ceasefire hasn’ t entirely stopped Israel’ s attacks on Hamas forces.
Watching, waiting
Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said in early November that the carrier was encouraged by the Gaza ceasefire but would need to make sure the agreement“ is entrenched and doesn’ t risk going backward at some point.”
CMA CGM, along with some small container lines, is the only major ocean carrier to operate a single continued service via the Red Sea through the Suez Canal, with its ships often escorted by the French Navy. CMA CGM’ s two 18,000-TEU ships that transited the Red Sea in November, however, were ad hoc sailings that returned to their southern Africa loops. The carrier said it had no plans to deploy larger ships through the Suez regularly.
CMA CGM and SeaLead in October expanded the coverage of each of their services that pass through the narrow Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. CMA CGM routed nearly 1.5 million TEUs of vessel capacity through the Suez Canal in the first 10 months of the year, while SeaLead routed nearly 600,000 TEUs of tonnage via the canal in the same period, according to an analysis from Alphaliner.
After the US Department of the Treasury on Aug. 1 sanctioned Iran-linked individuals and organizations, Singapore-based ocean carrier SeaLead was forced to terminate charters for 16 vessels.
“ The ceasefire is likely to stay in place for as long as there is commitment for the hostage exchanges to continue.”
Judging that the recent Houthi announcement of a pause in attacks is likely tactical, Kennedy said the fighters are incentivized to keep up some level of threat. That’ s because they are loathe to give up leverage generating financial and military support, or cede ground in their simmering stalemate with the Yemeni government.
In exchange for safe passage through the region, the Houthis collect approximately $ 180 million monthly from shipping agencies, according to an unreleased United Nations report.
email: mark. szakonyi @ spglobal. com
De-escalation of regional conflict could allow liner services to eventually return to the Suez Canal( pictured). Shutterstock. com
22 Journal of Commerce | December 1, 2025 www. joc. com