Commentary

By William B. Cassidy

Shippers of all types are feeling burned as pricing and capacity expectations go up in flames.

A persistent bitterness is running through conversations with US truck shippers this year.

Shippers feel burned as pricing and capacity expectations— even long-term relationships with truckload service providers— go up in flames. They ask whether being a“ shipper of choice” makes them logistics champions or chumps.

We’ ve heard these complaints several times in recent discussions with shippers:“ The ink wasn’ t even dry on the contract when... We never gouged them, even when rates plummeted... We expected increases, but not... Doesn’ t shipperof-choice mean anything?”

Logistics managers, we all know, are born to trouble as surely as sparks fly upward. Handling“ sparks” is part of the job, but they have been relentless in their flight lately. Supply chain disruption and the dislocation of capacity, whether container ships or trucks, is increasing.

“ Every time I look up there is something else on the horizon that will impact carrier costs and capacity,” an anonymous shipper told investment research firm Morgan Stanley.“ We’ ve had to make some adjustments to our routing guide and conduct a couple of mini-bids.”

An increase in mini-bids and a step back from longer-term service contracts are signs the market is flipping. So is the rise of transactional rates above contract pricing, which occurred in the US truckload market in June.

That gap widened to 11 cents per mile in July, according to DAT Freight & Analytics. DAT’ s average dry-van contract rate was up 22 % year over year in July at $ 2.94 per mile, while the average spot rate of $ 3.05 per mile was up 49 % from a year prior, exceeding the boom year of 2021.

When it came, the speed and volatility of the trucking market shift surprised shippers.

“ While I understand carriers need to respond to changing market conditions, it’ s difficult to reconcile some of the current requests with the long-term partnership approach we’ ve taken over the past several years,” another shipper told Morgan Stanley.

“ During the extended shipper-favored market, we did not aggressively chase every market decline, force across-the-board rate reductions, or threaten to move freight solely to capture short-term savings,” the shipper told Morgan Stanley. Carriers now push for additional rate hikes and threaten to walk away from freight, the shipper said.

But plenty of shippers did chase lower rates in 2022 – 25, not just because they wanted to, but because management wanted rate cuts.

To a truckload carrier, the complaint sounds much like,“ Hey, at least we didn’ t kick you, spit on you and mug you when you were down.” It’ s an argument based on negative virtues.

“ It’ s easy to say you’ re a shipper of choice when rates are going down,” Eddie Sorg, chief commercial officer at transportation and logistics provider Arcbest, said at the SMC3 Connections conference in Palm Beach, Fla.“ If you’ ve been providing good increases to your core truckload carriers, I think that will matter.”

But it does matter to some carriers, and to their customers. Some shippers said that truckload carriers have“ held the line” on rate increases or kept them minimal when shippers didn’ t pursue deep cuts and remained consistent with freight tendered.

“ I think being a shipper of choice is more important than it ever has been, but it isn’ t just dependent on the rate structure,” said Mike Regan, chief relationship officer at TranzAct Technologies.“ It means employing key relationship principles and letting those principles govern or drive the results and not abandoning them when you get pressure from on high.”

Those principles haven’ t changed since“ shipper of choice” became a buzz phrase in the 2010s. Reducing driver detention, paying on time, providing accurate forecasts and aligning shipping operations with carrier asset networks still lead to long-term“ trusted” partnerships.

Logistics managers also need to continually educate their bosses about why rates are skyrocketing, and why this cycle is different. It is a structural not cyclical market shift,“ and we’ re not done yet,” said Matt Harding, VP of market intelligence for freight payment platform Triumph.

There’ s been a capacity collapse, rather than a“ crunch.” Equipment, insurance, and labor costs are rising. Capacity won’ t come back into the market as it has done before.

“ I honestly don’ t know where the relief is going to come from,” Harding said.“ There’ s a lot to unpack as we get through this year.”

Shippers and carriers have battled over price ever since bills of lading were written in cuneiform, and that’ s not going to stop. But shippers can rethink shipper-of-choice programs to recognize that market realities have changed, not just rates.

That’ s a first step to better relationships, good risk management and, perhaps, more stable rates.

email: bill. cassidy @ spglobal. com

54 Journal of Commerce | August 3, 2026 www. joc. com