Commentary

By Valter Branco

A super El Niño could become a defining test of South America’ s trade resilience.

When we discuss El Niño, attention typically focuses on droughts, floods and agricultural losses. For the maritime industry, however, the more important question may be how a severe El Niño could reshape trade flows and test supply chain resilience across South America.

Some forecasters have noted the possibility of a particularly intense El Niño event this year. While the severity and timing remain uncertain, previous episodes demonstrate how climate disruptions can extend far beyond the regions directly affected. In an increasingly interconnected logistics network, localized disruptions can trigger consequences across an entire continent.

The Amazon provides a compelling example. During the severe drought of 2023 and 2024, historically low water levels on the Rio Negro and other Amazon waterways significantly reduced navigability in key sections of the basin. The resulting draft restrictions affected cargo movements serving Manaus in northern Brazil, one of South America’ s largest industrial hubs.

Although often viewed as a regional port, Manaus occupies a critical position within global supply chains. Thousands of containers carrying electronics, motorcycles, appliances and industrial components depend on the Amazon river system to reach international markets and domestic consumers.

As river levels fell, logistics operators were forced to adopt extraordinary measures. Transshipment operations expanded, vessels operated with reduced loads and floating port structures were relocated to locations such as Itacoatiara to sustain operations. The episode highlighted how a hydrological disruption in a remote region can affect manufacturers, carriers and cargo owners far beyond the Amazon.

Should another severe drought emerge, the consequences are unlikely to remain confined to northern Brazil.

Ports such as Vila do Conde could assume a larger role as support points for cargo destined for the Amazon region. At the same time, strategically positioned hubs such as Suape and Pecém may experience longer container dwell times as cargo and equipment wait for river conditions to improve. The result could be increased yard occupancy, greater demand for empty container repositioning, and adjustments to feeder services connecting different parts of the South American coast.

While northern South America faces the risk of drought, the southern portion of the continent confronts a different challenge.

Historically, strong El Niño events have been associated with above-average rainfall in southern Brazil, Uruguay and the Río de la Plata basin. The devastating floods that struck Rio Grande do Sul in 2024 demonstrated how extreme hydrological events can disrupt transportation corridors, affecting highways, railways, distribution centers and port-related infrastructure.

Ports depend on far more than berth availability. Their performance is linked to the reliability of the logistics networks that connect them to producers and consumers. When those networks are disrupted, the consequences quickly extend throughout regional supply chains.

The port complexes of Rio Grande and Itajaí in southern Brazil deserve particular attention. In the Itajaí Valley, periods of intense rainfall have historically raised water levels along the Itajaí-Açu River, increasing the risk of operational disruptions. In Rio Grande, the greater vulnerability may lie in the transportation infrastructure connecting the port to agricultural production areas that play an increasingly important role in global food exports.

The potential impacts extend beyond Brazil. Peru and Ecuador have historically ranked among the South American countries most exposed to severe El Niño conditions. Flooding can damage roads, bridges, and logistics infrastructure that support key export sectors. Further south, Argentina and Uruguay may also face disruptions linked to excessive rainfall and interruptions along major transportation corridors.

For maritime stakeholders, the most important lesson is that climate-related disruptions can no longer be viewed solely through a local lens. The growing integration of logistics networks means that navigation restrictions in the Amazon, flooding in southern Brazil or infrastructure damage along the Pacific Coast can generate ripple effects throughout South American trade.

For cargo owners, the challenge will not simply be responding to disruptions after they occur but anticipating them. The ability to reroute cargo, utilize alternative gateways and adapt logistics networks could become just as important as physical infrastructure itself.

More than a weather event, a super El Niño could become a defining test of South America’ s trade resilience.

Valter Branco is a Brazilian consultant specializing in ports, maritime logistics and international trade.

email: db. v @ hotmail. com

52 Journal of Commerce | August 3, 2026 www. joc. com