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EPA proposal would cut truck costs, but little impact expected on capacity

By Dan Ronan

The Trump administration’ s proposal to ease portions of the Environmental Protection Agency’ s( EPA’ s) 2027 heavy-duty engine emissions rule could lower the cost of buying new trucks, but industry economists say it is unlikely to loosen one of the freight market’ s tightest constraints: trucking capacity.

The proposal, announced on July 9 by EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, retains the requirement that heavy-duty engines reduce nitrogen oxide( NOx) emissions by 80 % beginning with model year 2027 trucks, while eliminating or delaying several of the rule’ s most expensive compliance provisions. EPA estimates the revisions could reduce the cost of a new truck by as much as $ 6,000 and save the trucking industry approximately $ 12 billion.

For fleets, the proposal changes the economics of purchasing equipment, but it is not likely to fundamentally change the economics of adding capacity.

Lower acquisition costs improve carrier profitability, but they don’ t put more trucks on the road, analysts said. Capacity expands only when carriers have freight to haul, qualified drivers to operate additional equipment and a business case for growing fleets, rather than replacing aging tractors.

“ It only adds capacity if you add drivers,” said Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR Transportation Intelligence.“[ The EPA proposal ] is certainly a plus for carriers and private fleets, but it is not anything that is going to fundamentally change the [ capacity ] trajectory.”

Truck orders have rebounded sharply this year following a prolonged freight recession, but Vise said the buying remains overwhelmingly replacement-driven rather than expansionary. FTR Transportation Intelligence reported preliminary North American Class 8 truck orders reached

EPA estimates the revisions could reduce the cost of a new truck by as much as $ 6,000. Shutterstock. com

30,500 units in June, a 241 % increase from the same month a year earlier, although the comparison was against an unusually weak June 2025.

“ Most of this equipment is going to replace trucks that are wearing out,” Vise said.

‘ Affordable’ standards

The EPA proposal lowers the cost of complying with the 2027 emissions rule compared with the Biden administration’ s original regulation, but it does not eliminate the emissions standards. New trucks are still expected to cost more than today’ s equipment because manufacturers must continue meeting the stricter NOx limits beginning in 2027.

Instead, the Trump administration is targeting provisions the trucking industry argued would impose the greatest financial burden, including expanded emissions warranties, longer useful-life requirements and other compliance costs. For fleets that have struggled with soaring equipment prices, those changes could provide meaningful relief. Mike Kucharski, co-owner and vice president of Chicago-based refrigerated carrier JKC Trucking, said the price of a new tractor has climbed dramatically over the past several years, forcing many fleets to postpone replacing equipment and spend more on maintaining older trucks.

“ These trucks have gone up in cost by $ 40,000 because of the DEF requirements,” Kucharski said.“ The system is costly. You have to do maintenance, and anytime a sensor goes out, you have to derate the truck. Time is money. We haul refrigerated freight. We have to keep moving.”

A new tractor that sold for about $ 140,000 before the COVID-19 pandemic now costs $ 190,000, he said.

“ Anything to lower the costs for independent owneroperators or big fleets so they can save money,” Kucharski said.“ We couldn’ t buy trucks for four or five years because they were so expensive. Everybody has been putting money into older trucks. Anything to lower costs helps.”

The American Trucking Associations( ATA), which earlier this year urged the EPA to revisit the rule, welcomed the latest proposal.

“ New environmental standards must be achievable, affordable and reliable,” ATA CEO Chris Spear said in a statement.“ If a truck cannot perform safely and efficiently on America’ s highways, then the freight does not move, shelves do not get stocked, and our economy pays the price.” ATA said EPA’ s proposal would maintain the current five-year, 100,000-mile emissions warranty, delay expanded useful-life requirements until 2030, and provide manufacturers greater flexibility through nonconformance penalties and emissions credit provisions.

Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, described the EPA proposal as an incremental adjustment, rather than a fundamental shift in the market.

“ The main challenge is still the shortage of drivers, rather than the cost of trucks,” Denoyer said.

He added that the proposal largely reflects changes manufacturers have anticipated for months after EPA signaled it would revisit portions of the rule while preserving the underlying emissions standards.

email: contactdanronan @ gmail. com

28 Journal of Commerce | August 3, 2026 www. joc. com