Cover Story
Booming cargo volumes tied to AI data centers are distorting the supply-demand balance in the trans-Pacific ocean and air trades, masking weaknesses in more traditional consumer and e-commerce goods. That, in turn, is soaking up available capacity and keeping rates elevated in the ramp up to the winter holiday shopping season.
Oversized components for data centers and their associated energy production projects have been helping to fill a void left by canceled wind farms on US-bound multipurpose ships for the better part of the last 18 months. As construction accelerates, developers are sending smaller pieces of hardware like server racks by container and the smallest, highest-value cargoes, such as semiconductors, by air freight.
That steady stream of US imports, primarily from China, has extended an early trans-Pacific peak season even as shipments of consumer merchandise wane.
“[ T ] rade momentum is heavily skewed, with AI hardware exporters experiencing massive growth surprises while traditional consumer hubs face softening demand,” Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis, wrote in the company’ s Sunday Spotlight newsletter.
“ AI hardware exporters [ are ] experiencing massive growth surprises while traditional consumer hubs face softening demand.”
Mario Tama / Staff / Getty Images
Frontloaded ocean-borne imports of traditional fall and holiday consumer products peaked in July ahead of US tariff changes that went into effect on July 24. According to the latest forecast from the National Retail Federation, containerized imports will set a new monthly record in July, before settling into year-over-year declines of between 3 % and 5 % from August through November.
According to S & P Global Energy, US data center gridbased power demand is projected to rise 19.1 % this year and another 57.9 % from 2026 to 2030. S & P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.
That forecast is backed up by a 13.8 % year-over-year increase— and 55.3 % from the same 2023 period— in US imports of materials and equipment for physical infrastructure, power infrastructure, cooling infrastructure, networking and IT in the first half of 2026, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce.
US spending on data centers jumped 26.4 % year over year to a record $ 59.3 billion in the first quarter, according to the Census Bureau.
However, growing grassroots opposition could blunt the data center boom in 2027 and beyond. According to S & P Global Energy, at least 64 projects in the US representing approximately 29 gigawatts of potential capacity demand have been canceled so far this year.
www. joc. com August 3, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 11