Container Shipping Quarterly

Special Report

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Shipping emissions continue to rise as path toward net-zero emerges

By Greg Knowler

consultancy said in its 2024 Container Shipping Outlook report , published March 25 .

CO2 emissions from the container shipping industry increased to 230 million tons in 2023 , almost one-quarter of the 1 billion tons emitted by all maritime shipping .

“ Even targeted investment and conversion to alternative-fuel propulsion systems will not be sufficient to achieve the mandated 20 % reduction by 2030 ,” the report found . It said net-zero by 2050 remained within reach , but just barely , and only if 5 % to 17 % of the industry ’ s fleet was converted to zero-emission fuels such as ammonia , methane or hydrogen by 2030 and 84 % to 93 % was converted by 2050 .

The container shipping industry appears to be taking one step forward and two steps backward when it comes to decarbonization .

The member states of the International Maritime Organization ( IMO ) are building consensus around a framework for midterm measures needed to accelerate the industry ’ s energy transition , but already dangerously high carbon emissions from container shipping are still climbing .

The diversion of ships around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa to avoid the Red Sea is adding up to two weeks to voyages — thereby increasing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas ( GHG ) emissions — on most Asia – Europe and Asia – US East Coast routes , placing increasing pressure on midterm emissions goals required to meet the IMO ’ s target of at or near net-zero by 2050 , according to a new report from AlixPartners .

“ Far from declining on the way to a mandated 20 % reduction in CO2-equivalent emissions by 2030 , the industry ’ s combined emissions will rise sharply in 2024 as liners forgo the Red Sea for [ transit around Africa ], which will add roughly 30 % to the length of their voyages ,” the

“ Far from declining ... the industry ’ s combined emissions will rise sharply in 2024 as liners forgo the Red Sea .”

“ The worst-case projection has industry emissions approaching 350 million tons by 2050 , barring concerted intervention by governments , shippers , consumers and industry groups ,” AlixPartners added .

AlixPartners estimates that reaching the emissionsreduction goal for 2050 will cost up to $ 1.4 trillion , with the burden to be borne by carriers and energy suppliers and , ultimately , by shippers and end-users .

“ None of the required investment and emissions reductions will occur without powerful incentives and sanctions to change the behavior of carriers and shippers alike ,” the report said . “ That won ’ t happen easily or overnight .”

14 Journal of Commerce | April 8 , 2024 www . joc . com