Government

paying for credits to make up the compliance deficit, and the others who want a flat carbon emissions fee to guarantee revenue and reduce the cost gap between fuel types.

Small island nations oppose both approaches because they believe the fuel standard measure will not generate enough funding to support“ a just and equitable transition,” and because they rely on sea trade for everything, the carbon tax will cost them out of existence.

Navigating a way through the divisions among member states will not be easy, but Lloyd’ s Register said the IMO cannot afford to close this milestone MEPC meeting on a“ no deal” basis.

“ It is not expected to be a hostile meeting, but there are

many heated discussions already taking place in back rooms and corridors that will continue in the lead up to the meeting,” Wibroe said.“ It is anticipated, however, that the IMO is still likely to close MEPC 83 with a consensus.”

Nyhus likewise said that by the time MEPC delegates emerge from their London Embankment bunker at the IMO headquarters, they will have reached a deal of some kind.

“ It looks pretty certain that this is going to come down to the wire at MEPC 83, with a very real possibility that the meeting at some point simply will be presented with a takeit-or-leave-it proposal,” he said.

email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com

FMC probes ocean bottlenecks as Trump looks to rule the waves

By Michael Angell

The US Federal Maritime Commission( FMC) is asking shipping interests to weigh in on the biggest global maritime chokepoints they face as part of US waterborne commerce. The probe, part of the FMC’ s regular work under US shipping law, comes amid the Trump administration’ s moves to assert US power across the global maritime sector and to develop a US-based shipping industry.

The FMC said in February it is investigating“ transit constraints at international maritime chokepoints” as part of its regular annual report to Congress about practices in the ocean shipping industry. The agency is asking, in particular, whether the practices or policies of foreign governments and ocean carriers exacerbate those chokepoints.

“ It appears that constraints on transits... may have created shipping conditions that call for careful consideration

The Panama Canal( pictured) is one of seven chokepoints included in the FMC probe. Shutterstock. com by the Federal Maritime Commission regarding the determination of its policies and the carrying out of its duties,” the agency said in the docket announcing the probe.

The FMC identified seven chokepoints for the probe: the English Channel, the Malacca Strait, the Northern Sea Passage, the Singapore Strait, the Panama Canal, the Strait of Gibraltar and the Suez Canal.

The Panama Canal has been a particular area of concern for President Donald Trump, who has criticized the 1977 treaty that ceded US control of the canal to Panama.

The Trump administration got one win in that regard when BlackRock-backed investors Global Infrastructure Partners struck a $ 23 billion deal to buy the ports network belonging to Hong Kong’ s CK Hutchison. The deal included two Panama marine terminals that Trump called out for their Chinese ownership.

The FMC said in its docket about the investigation that the Panama Canal“ holds substantial geopolitical importance [ and is ] crucial to the interests of the United States.”

“ Political instability or disruptions in its operation could have far-reaching consequences,” it added.

The FMC suggested that if Panama or any other maritime entity appears to be causing problems at the canal, the US is prepared to retaliate against Panama’ s ship registry— one of the largest in the world with 8,000 vessels— including refusing US entry to Panama-flag vessels.

The FMC is also seeking input on avoiding other types of navigational constraints, including the 2021 grounding of the Ever Given in the Suez Canal and the 2024 closure of the Port of Baltimore after the container ship Dali struck a bridge, causing it to collapse.

Alongside the FMC, the Trump administration as a whole has taken interest in the maritime sector, particularly regarding how to boost the US’ presence.

The US Trade Representative is currently weighing whether Chinese-built and-operated ships should face fees of up to $ 1.5 million for US port calls to offset China’ s dominance in shipbuilding. In his joint address to Congress at the start of March, Trump said his administration plans to create an office of commercial and military shipbuilding with the aim of“ bringing this industry home to America.”

email: michael. angell @ spglobal. com

34 Journal of Commerce | April 7, 2025 www. joc. com