Container Shipping Quarterly
Special Report the Asia-to-US West and East coast trades despite a series of general rate increases( GRIs).
Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said that no matter how long the Red Sea disruption lasted, the fundamentals of increasing overcapacity in container shipping would“ eventually” prevail and could start hitting the market as early as the third quarter.
“ Even if the situation on the Red Sea was to endure for two years, three years or four years, the current order book
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Asia – USWC spot rates have sunk 67.6 % since Jan. 1, while Asia – Europe pricing is down 50 %. Shutterstock. com
Ultra-large vessels more than 50 % of container ship order book
Annual container ship orders by vessel size, in TEUs Ann
4,834,365
TEU capacity
4,000,000
3,000,000 1,000,000 2,000,000
1,000,000
0
Source: Sea-web, S & P Global
L 2021 2022 2023
2024 2025
< 10,000 TEU Panamax: 10-14,000 TEU Ultra Large > 14,501 TEU
© 2025 S & P Global
L would eventually be bigger than what we expect market growth to be,” Clerc said during the carrier’ s earnings call. The container shipping order book is currently just over 7 million TEUs, representing 25 % of the existing fleet, according to S & P Global’ s Sea-web, sister company of the Journal of Commerce, with the supply-demand imbalance expected to be particularly acute over the next two years.
“ We are entering a multi-year period of losses as the industry grapples with overcapacity.”
Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at shipping association BIMCO, had forecast cargo volume growth of between 3 % and 4 % in both 2024 and 2025, which will be easily outstripped by fleet growth that was due to top 9.5 % in 2024 and is forecast at 4.9 % in 2025.
An estimated 10 % of global capacity has been absorbed by the longer transits around southern Africa to avoid the Red Sea. The Houthi’ s move to renew attacks on Israeli-linked ships and a flurry of air strikes from US warplanes on the militants’ positions in Yemen highlighted the ongoing volatility in the region.
“ The next incremental addition in capacity will result [ in the ] near term from the reopening of the Red Sea, which we
April 7, 2025 | Journal of Commerce 21