April 6, 2026 | Page 31

Surface Transportation

Diesel fuel prices reached $ 5.37 per gallon on March 24, the highest since July 2022. THEPALMER / Getty Images

Despite higher rates, fleets have been cautious about adding capacity, even though stricter emissions regulations in 2027 will increase the purchase price of a new truck. Cristina Gallo-Aquino, CFO of Ryder systems who spoke at the J. P Morgan event, said that“ middle- to smaller sized” carriers are hesitant to make the decision to purchase, and has not seen a shift despite a coming price increase.

Fuel surge amplifies pressure

Average diesel prices reached $ 5.37 per gallon as of March 24, according to the US Energy Information Administration, up from $ 3.75 per gallon just one month prior and

Spot truckload rates remain elevated amid diesel price spike

Dry-van spot rates, excluding fuel, DAT ' s Top 50 US Lanes

$ 2.5

$ 2.4

$ 2.2 $ 1.6 $ 2.0

$ 1.8

$ 1.6
Jan L2001	Apr	Jul 06	Oct

January April L July October 2024 2025 2026

the highest since July 2022. On the spot market, where rates often include fuel, the increase is squeezing owner-operators and smaller carriers, which may cause more capacity to exit truckload as they cannot pass through fuel costs.

In the contract market, larger asset-based carriers pass through higher fuel costs via surcharges, with averages rising nearly 20 cents per mile in the first two weeks of March. For shippers, the result is sticker shock on invoices and a renewed focus on lower-cost alternatives such as rail.

Mark George, CEO of Norfolk Southern, speaking at the J. P. Morgan event, welcomed the pressure on truck rates. Prices have been“ pretty depressed for a while,” he said.“ We’ d love to see some evacuation of capacity in trucking.”

In preparation for that shift, Darren Field, president of intermodal at J. B. Hunt Transport Services, said the company is actively engaging with shippers looking to manage rising transportation costs.

“ How can you hedge against the potential for a cost increase coming at your budget as a shipper by utilizing more intermodal?” Field asked at the J. P. Morgan conference.

But capturing that opportunity will depend on execution. Railroads must maintain service reliability even as volumes rise, a lesson of the pandemic when congestion and labor shortages left intermodal with a lingering stigma among some shippers.

Service metrics suggest some progress. In a Journal of Commerce survey conducted late last year, 91.3 % of respondents said they were satisfied with domestic intermodal service, up from 45.3 % in the spring of 2023.

Whether that improvement holds under renewed demand may determine how much freight ultimately shifts modes. Shippers, having experienced pandemic-era disruptions, are unlikely to tolerate a repeat.