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Regulators won’ t rubber-stamp UP-NS deal: industry stakeholders

By Ari Ashe

Most railroad industry stakeholders, including Union Pacific( UP) itself, reject the idea that federal regulators will“ rubber-stamp” the proposed $ 85 billion merger of UP with Norfolk Southern Railway, acknowledging the railroad will have to show that the deal enhances competition for it to be approved.

Speculation about whether approval of the deal was a foregone conclusion began last September when President Donald Trump met with UP CEO Jim Vena at the White House, then posted a message on Truth Social expressing support for the transaction.

There were other“ positive” signs for UP as well. Trump last August fired Robert Primus from the US Surface Transportation Board( STB), saying Primus did not align with his“ America First” agenda. Trump also nominated a third Republican to the STB, tilting the agency toward probusiness conservatives. Notably, UP donated to the fund financing Trump’ s efforts to build a White House ballroom.

“ People who are not in DC immediately took to heart when President Trump said,‘ Oh, that’ s a good idea. Let’ s have a merger,’ and thought it was a done deal. Those of us in DC knew that wasn’ t the case,” Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Washington-based Agriculture Transportation Coalition( AgTC), said at the Journal of Commerce’ s TPM26 conference.

“ You’ ve got a railroad [ BNSF Railway ] that’ s opposing it, and the chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, Ted Cruz of Texas [ who’ s also opposed ],” Friedmann added.

Supporters say combining the two railroads would create operational efficiencies and dramatically reduce bottlenecks in gateway cities such as Chicago, Kansas City and Memphis. Opponents counter that many of those efficiencies could be achieved without a major consolidation that would leave BCOs with fewer choices and increase the risk of service disruptions.

“ We have railroads on the western side and the eastern side of the country, and they can’ t connect seamlessly and easily, which is an anomaly compared with most other countries,” said Jeremy Nixon, CEO of Ocean Network Express( ONE).“ Anything that can join up and move the cargo through smoother, quicker, and take cost out is a benefit.”

An apolitical review

Martin Oberman, a former chairman of the STB, insists regulators will not decide the fate of the deal based on orders from Trump. Oberman was on the STB between 2019 and 2024 and served alongside current members Patrick Fuchs, Michelle Schultz and Karen Hedlund.

“ Occasionally, one of us would say to the other,‘ I was confirmed by the Senate for the purpose of using my independent judgment. That’ s what I do. That’ s why I’ m here,’” Oberman told the Journal of Commerce. The board“ may come to the conclusion that the merger should be approved, but it absolutely won’ t be for political reasons.”

“ People who are not in DC... thought it was a done deal. Those of us in DC knew that wasn’ t the case.”

Perhaps the best evidence approval won’ t be a foregone conclusion, Oberman noted, is the fact that UP’ s initial application was deemed“ incomplete” in January. UP plans to refile by April 30, which will kickstart another 30-day review. If deemed“ complete” on the second attempt, the STB will commence an exhaustive regulatory process that includes an environmental review and public hearings that will go into 2027.

And even with Trump’ s support, nearly 50 Republicans in Congress wrote a letter to the STB in early February expressing concerns about the transaction.

“ Some of us are already hearing initial concerns about the UP-NS application and its lack of serious and meaningful commitments to enhance competition and protect against service meltdowns,” the letter read.“ In light of this, the board must consider with extreme care the potential risks posed by this transaction to determine whether it meets the public interest test.”

A week later, seven Republican state attorneys general wrote a letter to the Department of Justice calling the

26 Journal of Commerce | April 6, 2026 www. joc. com