Container Shipping Quarterly
Special Report could take effect on US services,” Hookham said.“ The current surcharging behavior will only hasten demands for similar notice periods to become mandatory worldwide.”
Fractured fuel links
While carriers roll out their fuel surcharges to try to recover rising costs, freight tracking platform Vizion believes the traditional linkage between fuel costs and BAFs has fractured due to the rapid escalation of the war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In a recent review of bunker surcharges, Vizion noted that average very low sulfur fuel oil( VLSFO) prices of $ 535 per metric ton in 2025 were down 14.4 % year over year, the lowest since 2020, with BAF contributing just 10 % to 20 % to total freight costs.
The launch of US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 triggered a 73 % fuel price spike to $ 939 per metric ton in under two weeks, and carriers within days responded with emergency surcharges of $ 60 per TEU to $ 190 per TEU, far faster than standard quarterly BAF adjustments. That shows the traditional BAF fuel-price correlation has weakened as carriers shift to emergency mechanisms to manage extreme volatility, according to Vizion.
But Vizion said a deeper trend was emerging with a market fracture in progress as carriers divided into two camps: immediate risk transfer versus contract stability. Carriers such as Maersk initially absorbed the volatility to protect long-term contract relationships, although the carrier has subsequently announced an emergency fuel surcharge. A more aggressive strategy was taken by MSC and CMA CGM, with both adopting a rapid pass-through of fuel spikes to protect their margins immediately.
Shippers with locked-in rates will enjoy a short-term cost advantage, but it will be a temporary relief before fuel adjustments hit. Vizion warned that over the next three to six months, shippers can expect aggressive second-quarter BAF corrections to capture the remaining fuel cost delta.
Chantal McRoberts, director and head of advisory at Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, said shippers understand they will pay an increased fuel cost in the third quarter as that is part of the BAF policy that enables carriers to recover fuel costs over time.
“ The concern around the introduction of EBAF is the potential for double recovery,” McRoberts told the Journal of Commerce.“ In practice, a shipper
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may pay an EBAF during Q2 to reflect higher fuel prices and then see its underlying BAF increase in Q3 as the formula catches up with those same Q2 fuel costs. At that point, the EBAF risks becoming revenue-generating rather than purely cost-recovering.
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“ This is the dilemma currently facing shippers,” she added.“ As a result, those operating under transparent, formula-based BAF mechanisms are, in many cases, pushing back on EBAF charges.”
email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com
April 6, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 19