Container Shipping Quarterly

Special Report

Trans-Pacific contract talks accelerating after Walmart signs

By Bill Mongelluzzo

Container lines that paused trans-Pacific service contract talks to assess the impact of the war in the Middle East are back at the table, and expectations are that major retailers will sign as Walmart, the largest US importer, has finalized its 2026 – 27 contracts with its core of half-dozen carriers, according to two sources familiar with the matter in conversation with the Journal of Commerce.

The move opens the door for other major retailers and, in turn, smaller importers and then non-vessel operating common carriers to ink their own service contracts, which typically go into effect May 1.

Despite the unknowns in terms of length and scope of the ever longer Middle East war, carriers say big-box retailers want to lock in vessel capacity, and they, as well as some forwarders, are urging customers to move expeditiously in their contract negotiations, rather than allowing uncertainties in global trade to deter them.

“ We now have seen an unpredictable shock to the global ocean market in like four of the last six years,” a carrier executive who asked not to be named told the Journal of Commerce.“ Some BCOs [ beneficial cargo owners ] recognized that and wanted to take risk off the table; they signed early and at higher rates than many were predicting.”

The executive added that analyst forecasts of supply and demand have rarely matched reality in recent years due to that outsized volatility. Geopolitical events including diversions away from the Red Sea, unpredictable US tariff policy and even more weather events, impacting ocean reliability, have begun to shift some shippers’ thinking, he said.

“ Some shippers have come to realize that pushing carriers well below breakeven to save a few cents on their cost of goods is not worth the risk of a major unpredictable event happening,” the executive said.

‘ Not helpful to anyone’

While securing space remains paramount for cargo owners, rising bunker fuel prices, driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are also driving contract discussions regarding bunker fuel adjustment factors. Shippers are reluctant to compensate carriers for the rising operating costs tied to the Middle East on a trade lane that is not directly impacted.

“ The uncertainty and waiting around for clarity or

Walmart signing sets the stage for other large retailers, followed by smaller importers and NVOs. Shutterstock. com

16 Journal of Commerce | April 6, 2026 www. joc. com