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Acquiring Zim’ s 117 ships would increase the fifth-largest global container line’ s fleet capacity by nearly 30 %. Hieronymus Ukkel / Shutterstock. com

Hapag-Lloyd – Zim merger would inject competition into trades, if approved

By Greg Knowler, Mark Szakonyi and Keith Wallis

A merged Hapag-Lloyd and Zim Integrated Shipping Services will undoubtedly deepen the container shipping industry’ s oligopoly, but arguably just as important is how a merger will ripple into various trade lanes and what it says about the long-term pursuit of assets in spite of current overcapacity.

The merger, expected to close in late 2026 if the Israeli government signs off, which is far from guaranteed, demonstrates that even amid overcapacity, major carriers are still playing a long game to secure assets.

Beyond cementing Hapag-Lloyd’ s position as the fifth-largest container line by tonnage, the $ 4.2 billion acquisition would also strengthen its market share across key trade lanes, significantly increase its intra-Asia network coverage and give it access to a niche car carrier market. The deal also puts a spotlight on a path for container lines to satisfy state interests while getting subsumed by major carriers.

“ We can offer an even better set of products to our customers, and it would also allow us to gain a little bit more scale.”

Importantly, the culture of both carriers is more similar than dissimilar. Hapag-Lloyd’ s focus on container shipping versus end-to-end logistics mirrors that of Zim, which prides itself in its agility compared to larger carriers.

“ Zim has very similar values as Hapag-Lloyd and has also a focus on delivering value and good quality to their customers,” Hapag Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said at the Journal of Commerce’ s TPM26 conference.“ We think that if we were able to join forces, we can offer an even better set of products and a better set of services to our customers. And it would also allow us to gain a little bit more scale, which would obviously make us more competitive.” The container shipping industry has been consolidating via mergers, acquisitions and bankruptcies for the better part of three decades. Hapag-Lloyd itself has been an active participant in the M & A department, having purchased five other carriers— cpships, CSAV, UASC, NileDutch and DAL— since 2005.

But the pace of that consolidation has accelerated in the last 11 years. In 2015, there were 18 global carriers, each with their own fleets, service networks, cost structures, pricing objectives and commercial strategies, noted James Caradonna, executive vice president and chief pricing officer at forwarder Spedag Americas. If the Hapag-Lloyd Zim deal goes through, there will be just nine global carriers left.

“ It is, in my opinion and my experience, the most profound era of consolidation that perhaps any industry has gone through,” Caradonna said during TPM26.“ There could be others that I cannot think of, but just an astounding level of consolidation in what is a very, very brief period of time.”

As a result, shippers have fewer options than ever when it comes to port pairings, transit times, rates and customer service. It also means carriers have even greater control over the amount of capacity deployed in a given trade, allowing them to mitigate the impact of lower volumes on spot rates.

“ The carriers will have an easier time matching demand and supply through these various tactics,” Trine Nielsen, vice president of ocean, global at forwarder Flexport.“ If the carriers remain rational, the rates will be stabilizing at a relatively higher level compared to what we’ ve seen in the past.”

The“ good news” for shippers, according to Caradonna, is that the carriers have entered what he called the“ focus stage” of consolidation.

“ The focus stage of the consolidation cycle means that, by nature, the carriers now will be more service-oriented,” he said, citing the Gemini Cooperation’ s 90 % schedule reliability pledge as an example.“ And we’ re going to see that evolve further, so that is the good news. From a procurement standpoint, we are going to get more value out of what we pay.”

A lot of assets

From Hapag-Lloyd’ s perspective, the largest motivating factor in purchasing Zim is also the simplest: ships. The deal would add 117 owned and chartered vessels with a combined capacity of more than 700,000 TEUs to Hapag- Lloyd’ s fleet of 284 ships and 2.38 million TEUs, according to data from Alphaliner.

That might seem counterproductive at a time when the global fleet is growing faster than demand, but carriers believe the value of having additional vessels to capitalize on unexpected volume spikes or disruptions that soak up functional capacity outweighs the negatives of potential overcapacity. That belief is also evidenced by Ocean Network Express( ONE) becoming the largest external shareholder of Seaspan parent Poseidon Corp., a move that will give ONE greater control over its largest provider of chartered tonnage.

“ You have to have that asset, especially in this time of constant disruption,” Jan Tiedemann, senior analyst for liner shipping and ports at Alphaliner, told the TPM26 audience.“ We’ re going into a phase— and sorry, this is almost cliche to say— in which disruption is the new normal. The best ship is the ship you have.”

According to Tiedemann, Zim’ s newer dual-fuel LNG vessels and long-term charters secured in 2020 and 2021 made it a particularly attractive target. www. joc. com April 6, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 11