Spotlight
US retailers give H1 import forecast major boost
US retailers have again significantly upgraded their forecast for imports through the first half of 2024 , a move that comes as ocean carriers continue to add services to all coasts in a sign they do not fear overcapacity this summer and fall . The National Retail Federation ( NRF ), in its monthly Global Port Tracker ( GPT ) report compiled with Hackett Associates , said it now expects US imports in the first six months of the year to increase 11 % over the same period last year . That ’ s up from the forecast of a 7.8 % increase made in the March GPT . Retailers increased their year-over-year import projection for each month from April through July . Despite a string of disruptions , US consumer demand remains strong and is expected to stay that way into the summer – fall peak season . US imports from Asia in February of 1.42 million TEUs were up almost 40 % from February 2023 , according to PIERS , a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global . That followed an 18 % year-over-year jump in January . GPT ’ s new forecast for April is for a year-over-year jump in imports of 8.4 %, up from the 3.1 % increase expected last month . Upgrades were also made for May ( a 5.5 % year-over-year increase from the 0.5 % gain forecast last month ), June ( 8.9 % from 5.9 %) and July ( 6.6 % from 3.8 %). In its first forecast for August , GPT projects a 6.9 % increase in imports from August 2023 .
Jaxport \ Shutterstock . com evenfh \ Shutterstock . com
Panama Canal service restarts , stalls at Suez
The resumption of one Panama Canal service and the delay of a Suez Canal service reflects the diverging fortunes of the disrupted arteries of global trade . The Panama Canal Authority ( ACP ) as of the end of March increased the number of daily vessel slots available through the canal to 27 from 24 , a slight increase in the number of permitted daily vessel transits through the drought-hit waterway , spurring Maersk to announce April 5 it will resume transits through the canal in May on its Ocean-Americas ( OC1 ) service . That followed an improvement in actual and projected water levels on the Gatun Lake , a chokepoint on the canal system , following heavy rain in the canal watershed . The first northbound canal transit will be by the Maersk Inverness around May 17 , while the initial southbound transit will be made by the Spirit of Auckland around May 20 . Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express ( ONE ) confirmed transits through the Panama Canal have been fully restored on their three Asia – US East Coast trans-Pacific services operated under the THE Alliance network . At the same time , movement toward the Suez remains stagnant . Hapag-Lloyd and ONE said in a statement that THE Alliance ’ s East Coast 4 ( EC4 ) service from Asia will not restart as previously announced due to the ongoing threat to vessels transiting the Red Sea . The service was suspended last year due to plummeting freight rates . The first voyage on the restarted EC4 from Taiwan ’ s Kaohsiung port was scheduled for mid-April on the 14,080-TEU YM Warmth , which was expected to arrive at the Port of Norfolk on May 25 . The carriers said the EC4 , which transited the Suez Canal on its westbound voyage leg , will be postponed “ until the situation in the Red Sea has stabilized .” The decision underscores that ship diversions around Africa ’ s Cape of Good Hope will likely last through at least the first half of 2024 , if not longer . Along with THE Alliance , Maersk said in a March 22 customer advisory that it has no plans to resume Suez Canal transits because “ the risk level in the region remains elevated .”
NS finalizes litigation amid financial pressure
Norfolk Southern Railway ’ s ( NS ) has taken multiple financial hits in 2024 , punctuated by the $ 600 million settlement , announced April 8 , with those living or owning a business near the site of the February 2023 derailment in East Palestine , Ohio . NS also revealed it expects its second-quarter revenue to be impacted by $ 50 million to $ 100 million due to the closure of the Port of Baltimore following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key
Wirestock Creators \ Shutterstock . com
Bridge on March 26 . The East Palestine deal , which must be approved by a judge , resolves a class action lawsuit stemming from the incident in which 50 rail cars , some carrying hazardous materials , derailed . “ Individuals and businesses will be able to use compensation from the settlement in any manner they see fit to address potential adverse impacts from the derailment ,” NS said in a statement . The settlement came as NS announced preliminary first-quarter earnings , saying revenue declined 4 % year over year . Full earnings will be released April 24 . The railroad said its first-quarter expenses included paying rival Canadian Pacific Kansas City ( CPKC ) $ 25 million to lure away John Orr to become chief operating officer , replacing Paul Duncan . NS said its first quarter operating ratio — income after expenses — was 92.9 % on an unadjusted basis and 69.9 % excluding
6 Journal of Commerce | April 22 , 2024 www . joc . com